State Coincident Indexes in November 2022
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s state coincident indexes in November, showed softness, but on balance no more so, and arguably less, than in October. The indexes in 14 states dropped from October (little more than half the number that had one-month declines in the initial October results), all less than .5 percent. At the three-month horizon 12 states saw their index decline from August to November, but only 4 small-population ones (Vermont, Montana, Maine, and Rhode Island) clocked drops of more than .5 percent. However, large gains were also rare over these three months; a fairly moderate number (10) had gains of more than 1 percent (this group did include New York and Florida), with Hawaii’s 2.62 percent far and away the best. Over the past 12 months, 13 states (including California, New York, and Florida) had increase of at least 5 percent, but this count is also down from the first October results. 4 states (Arizona, Montana, Mississippi, and Oklahoma) had increases under 2 percent.
in November the independently estimated national figures of growth over the last 3 (.78 percent) and 12 (4.29 percent) months do not appear terribly out of line with the state figures.
All states have set new peaks in this series in this expansion. Connecticut had been the last holdout, but the revised dataset shows that the Nutmeg state exceeded the old mark in July.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.