Global| Aug 21 2020State Labor Markets in July
|in:Viewpoints
Summary
State labor markets generally showed further substantive improvement in July. Most saw statistically significant drops in their unemployment rate, led by Michigan's spectacular 6.2 percentage-point plunge. Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah [...]
State labor markets generally showed further substantive improvement in July. Most saw statistically significant drops in their unemployment rate, led by Michigan's spectacular 6.2 percentage-point plunge. Idaho, Nebraska, and Utah reported unemployment rates of 5 percent or lower. However, 18 states continue to have unemployment rates above 10 percent.
40 states (including DC) saw statistically significant increases in payroll employment in July, with 4 (California, Michigan, New Jersey, and New York) seeing increases of more than 100,000. New Mexico was the only state with a statistically significant decline. New Jersey had the largest percentage increase. Job growth appeared reasonably diverse in July, but, as was the case in May and June, gains in leisure and hospitality were widespread.
Over the last 12 months all states (and DC) except Idaho report statistically significant drops in payroll employment; Idaho's decline of a bit over 1 percent was not deemed statistically significant.
In general, labor markets appear to be stronger in the plains and Rocky Mountain states, while the Northeast—where pandemic restrictions appear to be currently more extensive (and current incidence lower) looks weaker; the large recent gains in New York and New Jersey come after very sharp declines, and New York and Massachusetts have the highest unemployment rates in the nation.
Puerto Rico's job numbers were unchanged in July, though private-sector payrolls edged up. Not-seasonally adjusted the unemployment rate on the island was 7.3 percent, down from 7.9 percent in July 2019. The decline over this period reflects a drop in the labor force.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.