Global| Dec 27 2018State Coincident Indexes
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Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity in November shows further signs of converging growth across the nation. 32 states have seen gains between 2% and 4% over the last 12 months. Florida, with [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity in November shows further signs of converging growth across the nation. 32 states have seen gains between 2% and 4% over the last 12 months. Florida, with an increase of 4.04%, was the only one of the four largest states to see growth outside that range. The outliers are comparable to those reported for October, with New Mexico seeing the largest increase (6.3%), and Hawaii very near the bottom with a .5% gain (Maine was a tad softer than Hawaii, showing that geographic extremes can sometimes report comparable figures).
Over the 3 months ending in November 23 states recorded increases from .5% to .98%; rates consistent with 12-month growth of 2% to 4%. The faster-growing states were to some extent a geographic medley, including two (Florida and New York) of the very largest states. Interestingly, most New England states were also in this category—though the rapid growth reported for New Hampshire and Rhode Island is doubtlessly related to spillovers from advances in the Boston area, while Connecticut's sharp gain could be related to growth in New York (New Jersey's increase was a bit short of 1%). In any event, the strength in the Northeast is further confirmation that national growth is no longer a byproduct of gains in the West. On the low side, Hawaii, Maine, and North Dakota registered declines in this period.
The last monthly tick (October-November) shows, again, Hawaii, Maine, and North Dakota (joined by Pennsylvania) on the negative side. 8 states (Massachusetts, Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Delaware, Vermont, South Dakota, and New Hampshire) has increases of .5% or higher. It seems like conditions have been strong in the Plains and for Boston-area commuters; perhaps the latter case shows that World Series victories do provide general economic benefits!
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.