Global| Jul 25 2018State Coincident Indexes
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Summary
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s state coincident indexes show some dispersion in growth across the nation. Since June 2017, comparable to the payroll employment numbers, growth has apparently been most rapid in the West, with New [...]
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s state coincident indexes show some dispersion in growth across the nation. Since June 2017, comparable to the payroll employment numbers, growth has apparently been most rapid in the West, with New Mexico reporting the strongest gain. California and Texas also had outsized growth. On the weak side, two smaller (economically) energy-producing states, Alaska and West Virginia, were unusually low, as was Michigan (North Dakota’s increase of 2.3% was only moderately less than the national gain of 2.8%).
The sense that there has been some dispersion is magnified in looking at shorter periods. Over the three months ending in June, the index declined in Alaska, Kentucky, and Alabama, while eleven states saw increases of more than 1.25%. The indexes for ten states fell from May to June, while ten states saw increases of more than .5% in that month.
The state coincident indexes are largely based on information from the payroll survey reports. Revisions in the payroll numbers will prompt changes in the coincident indexes, so one should not take away too much from the most recent monthly changes. Moreover, the trends in these indexes are benchmarked to state GDP numbers. As everybody knows, the benchmark revision of the national GDP data will be released on Friday; the associated benchmark revision of the state GDP figures will not appear until November. Thus, there will be a certain inherent inconsistency between the state coincident numbers and GDP over the next few months. Still, the general impression that the expansion is by no means uniform across the nation is likely to remain valid.
Charles Steindel
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Charles Steindel has been editor of Business Economics, the journal of the National Association for Business Economics, since 2016. From 2014 to 2021 he was Resident Scholar at the Anisfield School of Business, Ramapo College of New Jersey. From 2010 to 2014 he was the first Chief Economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, with responsibilities for economic and revenue projections and analysis of state economic policy. He came to the Treasury after a long career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he played a major role in forecasting and policy advice and rose to the rank of Senior Vice-President. He has served in leadership positions in a number of professional organizations. In 2011 he received the William F. Butler Award from the New York Association for Business Economics, is a fellow of NABE and of the Money Marketeers of New York University, and has received several awards for articles published in Business Economics. In 2017 he delivered Ramapo College's Sebastian J. Raciti Memorial Lecture. He is a member of the panel for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and of the Committee on Research in Income and Wealth. He has published papers in a range of areas, and is the author of Economic Indicators for Professionals: Putting the Statistics into Perspective. He received his bachelor's degree from Emory University, his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and is a National Association for Business Economics Certified Business EconomistTM.