Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
    background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
    background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<br>

<span id="articletext">
<p></p>
<p><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040210d.jpg" width="353"></p>
<p>In the immediate aftermath of the G7 Finance Minister&#39;s meeting last week, the dollar fell against the Euro and the UK pound. Early on February 9th, the euro was equal to $1.28 and the pound, $1.86.</p>
<p>The decline in the dollar that started in early 2002 has largely been relative to the euro, the pound and the Canadian and Australian dollars. In terms of the US dollar, the Chinese Yuan, the Hong Kong dollar and the Malaysian ringgit have been virtually unchanged. The Korean won, the Thai baht and the Taiwan dollar have been slightly more flexible, but their year over year changes have been small compared to those of the euro.</p>
<p>Reading between the lines of the communiqu&eacute; released by the Finance Ministers, one suspects that the G7 may begin to exert pressure on Asian governments to appreciate their currencies.</p>
</span>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b>Exchange Rates and Appreciation(+) Depreciation (-)</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>Jan 04</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>Dec 03</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>Jan 03</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>Jan 02</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>M/M<br></u>&nbsp;%</b></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>Y/Y</b>&nbsp;<br></u> <b>%</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>2003</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>2002</u></b></th>
<th scope="col"><b><u>2001</u></b></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Euro = $</td>
<td>1.2452</td>
<td>1.2597</td>
<td>1.0739</td>
<td>0.8594</td>
<td>-1.15</td>
<td>15.95</td>
<td>20.64</td>
<td>17.80</td>
<td>-5.19</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Yen per $</td>
<td>105.84</td>
<td>107.15</td>
<td>119.96</td>
<td>134.06</td>
<td>1.21</td>
<td>13.34</td>
<td>10.35</td>
<td>-12.74</td>
<td>-10.66</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK pound =$</td>
<td>1.8215</td>
<td>1.7842</td>
<td>1.6448</td>
<td>1.412</td>
<td>2.09</td>
<td>10.74</td>
<td>10.85</td>
<td>10.67</td>
<td>-2.75</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Hong Kong $ per $</td>
<td>7.78</td>
<td>7.76</td>
<td>7.80</td>
<td>7.79</td>
<td>-0.26</td>
<td>0.26</td>
<td>0.52</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">China yuan per $</td>
<td>8.277</td>
<td>8.277</td>
<td>8.277</td>
<td>8.277</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Korea won per $</td>
<td>1174</td>
<td>1192</td>
<td>1165</td>
<td>1314</td>
<td>1.53</td>
<td>-0.77</td>
<td>-0.48</td>
<td>10.72</td>
<td>-3.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Thailand baht per $</td>
<td>39.25</td>
<td>39.63</td>
<td>42.72</td>
<td>44.05</td>
<td>0.97</td>
<td>8.97</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>2.41</td>
<td>-1.79</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Singapore S$ =$</td>
<td>1.69</td>
<td>1.70</td>
<td>1.74</td>
<td>1.84</td>
<td>0.32</td>
<td>2.72</td>
<td>2.13</td>
<td>8.00</td>
<td>-7.60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Taiwan $ per $</td>
<td>33.39</td>
<td>33.99</td>
<td>34.61</td>
<td>34.99</td>
<td>1.80</td>
<td>3.65</td>
<td>2.09</td>
<td>0.86</td>
<td>-5.23</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>


In the immediate aftermath of the G7 Finance Minister's meeting last week, the dollar fell against the Euro and the UK pound. Early on February 9th, the euro was equal to $1.28 and the pound, $1.86. The decline in the dollar that [...]

Will Pressure Be Put on Asian Currencies to Appreciate?

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Tom Moeller

250612J8.jpg

250612K8.jpg

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1% (2.6% y/y) during May after falling 0.2% in April, revised from down 0.5%, and easing 0.1% in March, revised from unchanged, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase in May. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services also edged up 0.1% (2.7% y/y) after falling an unrevised 0.1% in April and rising an unrevised 0.2% in March. The PPI excluding food and energy (the former core index) rose 0.1% last month (3.0% y/y) after declining 0.2% in April, revised from down 0.4%, and rising 0.3% in March, revised from 0.4%. A 0.3% increase had been expected.

A 0.1% increase (3.2% y/y) in final demand services prices held back overall pricing pressure last month and followed a 0.4% decline. Final demand trade services prices rose 0.4% (4.1% y/y) after falling 0.5%, while the trade of finished goods index rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) following a 0.3% April decline. Transportation & warehousing prices fell 0.2% (+2.3% y/y) after a 0.1% improvement in April. Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing held steady last month (+3.0% y/y) after falling 0.3% in April.

The price index for final demand goods less foods & energy increased 0.2% (2.4% y/y) during May following a 0.3% increase. Nondurable consumer goods prices less food & energy rose 0.2% (2.2% y/y) after rising 0.4% in April. Durable consumer goods prices rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. The private capital equipment price index improved 0.4% (3.0% y/y) following a 0.3% gain. Government prices less food & energy rose 0.2% (2.6% y/y) after rising 0.4% in April.

Construction costs rose 0.3% (2.0% y/y) in May after falling 0.5% in April.

Prices for intermediate demand of processed goods edged 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) in May after rising 0.3% in April. Processed energy goods prices fell 1.2% following a 0.4% rise while processed foods prices rose 0.5% after falling 0.9% in April.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250612L8.jpg

250612M8.jpg

- Annual increase remains below January peak.	
- Core price gain slows y/y.
- Final demand goods price increase is steady y/y while services decelerate.

U.S. Producer Price & Core Price Indexes Edge Higher in May

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

250612A5.jpg

250612B5.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 248,000 in the week ending June 7, unchanged from the revised level in the week ending May 31. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 241,000. These data are seasonally adjusted by the Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s average of 235,250, which was revised up 250 from 235,000. It also is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023, when it was 245,000.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – in the week ended May 31 was 1.956 million, up 54,000 from 1.902 million, revised from 1.904 million in the prior week. The Department of Labor reported that this is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021, when it was 1,970,000. The 4-week moving average was 1.915 million, an increase of 19,750 from the previous week’s level of 1.895 million. This is the highest level for this average since November 27, 2021, when it was 1.924 million.

The insured unemployment rate for the week ending May 31, that is, the number of unemployment beneficiaries as a % of covered employment, edged up to 1.3% from the prior week’s 1.2%.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended May 24, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.22%), Washington (2.06%), California (2.03%), Rhode Island (1.96%), and Massachusetts (1.87%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Florida (0.36%), Alabama (0.45%), North Carolina (0.47%), Tennessee (0.48%), and Kentucky (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (1.61%), New York (1.55%), Pennsylvania (1.46%) and Texas (1.13%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250612C5.jpg

250612D5.jpg

- Initial claims for unemployment insurance were unchanged in the June 7 week.
- Total beneficiaries rose by 54,000 in the May 31 week.
- The insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3%.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Were Steady in Latest Week

Andrew Cates

**The Blue Chip growth consensus**
Our first chart this week depicting shifts in consensus growth expectations highlights significant divergences in the economic outlook over the past six months and the more recent one-month period. Major downward revisions over the past six months have prominently affected economies such as South Korea, Mexico, Australia and Canada, indicating heightened vulnerability to external shocks, particularly from disruptions linked to intensified US trade policies. Conversely, China has shown a slight improvement, possibly due to an effective policy response. The recent one-month adjustments, however, exhibit much smaller and generally modest upward revisions, suggesting some stabilization or cautious optimism amid ongoing uncertainties.

250612Z1.jpg

**The Blue Chip inflation consensus**
This next chart tracking consensus forecasts for CPI inflation in 2025 across the US, Euro area, and China reveals a striking divergence in inflation expectations. In the US, inflation projections rose steadily through late 2024 and early 2025, peaking above 3% before easing slightly. This upward drift likely reflects the lagged impact of the US economy's relative strength in 2024, including robust consumer demand and tight labour markets, rather than more recent tariff-related pressures. By contrast, Euro area forecasts have remained relatively low and stable, suggesting more subdued domestic dynamics and tighter policy. Meanwhile, China's CPI forecast has fallen sharply over the same period pointing to deepening demand-side weakness and lingering deflationary risks.

250612Z2.jpg

**Supply chain pressures** 
Looking ahead, the tight correlation between the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and producer price inflation for advanced economies underscores the risks posed by US trade policies. As supply chain pressures potentially intensify—partly due to renewed protectionist measures—global producer price pressures could again escalate, creating renewed inflationary challenges and complicating central bank policy calibration.

250612Z3.jpg

**US policy uncertainty**
As the chart below illustrates, US monetary policy uncertainty remains elevated, even as it has eased from its recent peaks. This persistent uncertainty continues to drive market volatility, reflecting investor unease over the Federal Reserve’s future policy path in the face of tariff-related disruptions and inflationary pressures. The chart specifically shows a potentially valuable tool for tracking this uncertainty – the Kansas City Fed’s measure of Policy Rate Uncertainty (KC PRU). This index is constructed from the prices of financial options linked to future short-term interest rates—rates that closely track the federal funds rate—and captures one-year-ahead uncertainty at a daily frequency dating back to the late 1980s.

250612Z4.jpg

**The UK labour market** 
The UK labour market data released this week revealed a sharp deterioration, with substantial job losses indicated by payroll data alongside a rising unemployment rate. This surprising weakness not only signals immediate economic challenges but also complicates the BoE’s monetary policy response at a time when policymakers face persistent inflationary pressures and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

250612Z5.jpg

**Energy and growth**
Over the longer term, the strong historical correlation between primary energy consumption and GDP growth in advanced economies underscores the critical role of energy in sustaining economic stability. Persistently high real energy prices and complex energy transition processes present significant obstacles, particularly for energy-intensive economies like the UK, which seek sustainable growth trajectories amid heightened geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

250612Z6.jpg

Financial markets have experienced considerable gyrations in recent weeks, reflecting substantial shifts in investor expectations and heightened uncertainty, largely driven by ongoing US tariff policies. Over the past six months, consensus growth forecasts have seen notable downward revisions across most major economies, though these have been partially offset by modest upward revisions in the past month (chart 1). Concurrently, consensus inflation projections have diverged significantly, with upward pressures in the US contrasting with deflationary risks in China (chart 2). Compounding these US issues, renewed protectionism appears to be pressuring global supply chains again, potentially increasing inflation risks and sustaining elevated monetary policy uncertainty (charts 3 and 4). This week's particularly weak UK employment data highlight immediate domestic economic fragility, while longer-term economic stability remains challenged by persistently high real energy prices and complexities surrounding the energy transition (charts 5 and 6).

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/2K5yn5mktem6BKoNjOxNI6?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: What’s Consensus?

250611L4.jpg

250611M4.jpg

The Consumer Price Index edged 0.1% higher in May after rising 0.2% in April and slipping 0.1% in March. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase in the headline CPI of 2.4% in May compared to 2.3% in April, both are the weakest y/y gains since February 2021 and below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy also edged 0.1% higher last month after a 0.2% April increase and a 0.1% March uptick. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The steady 2.8% y/y gain remained the weakest rise in core prices in four years, well below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices fell 1.0% (-3.5% y/y) last month after rising 0.7% in April. Gasoline prices weakened 2.6% (-12.0% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in April. Fuel oil prices rose 0.9% (-8.6% y/y) after rising 1.3% in April. Natural gas prices slumped 1.0% (15.3% y/y) following a 3.7% gain, and electricity prices gained 0.9% (4.5% y/y) after rising 0.8% in April.

Food prices rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) in May after a 0.1% slip during April. Egg prices fell 2.7% (+41.5% y/y) following a 12.7% decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices eased 0.1% (+3.3% y/y) after holding steady, while dairy product prices slipped 0.1% (+1.7% y/y) after falling 0.2% in April. Cereal & bakery product costs rose 1.1% (1.0% y/y) after a 0.5% decline while fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.3% (-0.5% y/y), following a 0.4% decline. Nonalcoholic beverage prices fell 0.3% (+3.1% y/y) in May after rising 0.7% in April.

Goods prices less food and energy held steady (+0.3% y/y) during May after rising 0.1% in April. Prices of used cars and trucks fell 0.5% (+1.8% y/y) last month, the same as during April, while new vehicle costs were off 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) after holding steady during April. Apparel prices declined 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) following a 0.2% easing. Appliance prices increased 0.8% (-0.8% y/y), the same as in April. Home furnishings prices increased 0.3% (0.6% y/y) after rising 0.2% in April. Recreation product costs rose 0.4% (-1.3% y/y) in May, matching the April increase. Education & communication product costs rose 0.1% last month (-3.8% y/y) after rising 0.3% in April.

Services prices less energy moved up 0.2% (3.6% y/y) last month following a 0.3% April gain. Shelter prices rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) last month after a 0.3% rise as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (4.1% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. The cost of lodging away from home eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y), the same as in April. Rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.8% y/y) after five straight 0.3% increases. Transportation service prices edged 0.2% lower (+2.8% y/y) after rising 0.1% in April reflecting a 0.7% rise (7.0% y/y) in the cost of motor vehicle insurance after it rose 0.6% in April. Public transportation costs declined 2.5% (-5.4% y/y) after falling 1.8% during April. The cost of medical services increased 0.2% (3.0% y/y) after two straight 0.5% increases, but the cost of recreation services eased 0.1% (3.7% y/y) after falling 0.3% in April. Education & communication services prices rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y) after falling 0.2% in April.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250611N4.jpg

250611O4.jpg

- Annual total & core gains remain on downward trend.
- Food prices increase but energy costs fall sharply.
- Core goods prices are unchanged and service price gain eases.

Will Pressure Be Put on Asian Currencies to Appreciate?

Summary

Louise Curley

More Economy in Brief

U.S. Producer Price & Core Price Indexes Edge Higher in May

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Were Steady in Latest Week

Charts of the Week: What’s Consensus?

U.S. Consumer Price Index & Core Prices Rise Minimally in May

Exchange Rates and Appreciation(+) Depreciation (-)	Jan 04	Dec 03	Jan 03	Jan 02	M/M %	Y/Y %	2003	2002	2001

Euro = $	1.2452	1.2597	1.0739	0.8594	-1.15	15.95	20.64	17.80	-5.19
Yen per $	105.84	107.15	119.96	134.06	1.21	13.34	10.35	-12.74	-10.66
UK pound =$	1.8215	1.7842	1.6448	1.412	2.09	10.74	10.85	10.67	-2.75
Hong Kong $ per $	7.78	7.76	7.80	7.79	-0.26	0.26	0.52	0.0	0.0
China yuan per $	8.277	8.277	8.277	8.277	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Korea won per $	1174	1192	1165	1314	1.53	-0.77	-0.48	10.72	-3.54
Thailand baht per $	39.25	39.63	42.72	44.05	0.97	8.97	9.01	2.41	-1.79
Singapore S$ =$	1.69	1.70	1.74	1.84	0.32	2.72	2.13	8.00	-7.60
Taiwan $ per $	33.39	33.99	34.61	34.99	1.80	3.65	2.09	0.86	-5.23