Louise Curley

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<p>The IFO index that measures overall business confidence in West Germany rose from 89.3 in Julyto 90.8 in August, the highest level since June, 2002. Businesses reported improved confidence in their current situation and in the expectations for the next six months.. Businesses in East Germany also reported an improvement in overall confidence--the result of an increase in confidence regarding current conditions, and a slight decline in confidence regarding expectations for the next six months.. The rise in the confidence of investors reported earlier this month in the ZEW measure and now the improvement in business confidence as reflected in the IFO indexes suggest that business activity in Germany may be about to pick up after declines of 0.2% and 0.1% in GDP the first and second quarters of this year. In addition to low interest rates and the proposed income tax reductions scheduled for 2004 that have contributed to the improved economic atmosphere, the recent decline in the Euro by almost 10% from its May 27 peak is another bright spot.</p>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
Percent Change
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
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<td><b><u>Aug 03</u></b></td>
<td><u><b>July 03</b></u></td>
<td><u><b>Aug 02</b></u></td>
<td><u><b>M/M</b></u></td>
<td><u><b>Y/Y</b></u></td>
<td><b><u>2002</u></b></td>
<td><u><b>2001</b></u></td>
<td><u><b>2000</b></u></td>
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<td class="firstcol"><b>West Germany</b></td>
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<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Business Climate</td>
<td>90.8</td>
<td>89.3</td>
<td>88.6</td>
<td>1.68</td>
<td>2.48</td>
<td>89.1</td>
<td>89.8</td>
<td>99.3</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Current Conditions</td>
<td>79.9</td>
<td>78.7</td>
<td>77.2</td>
<td>1.52</td>
<td>3.50</td>
<td>77.6</td>
<td>85.1</td>
<td>93.1</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Business Expectations</td>
<td>102.1</td>
<td>100.2</td>
<td>100.3</td>
<td>1.90</td>
<td>1.79</td>
<td>101.0</td>
<td>94.7</td>
<td>105.6</td>
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<td class="firstcol"><b>East Germany</b></td>
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<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Business Climate</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>103.1</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>0.97</td>
<td>5.26</td>
<td>98.6</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>106.0</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Current Conditions</td>
<td>123.3</td>
<td>121.1</td>
<td>115.3</td>
<td>1.82</td>
<td>6.94</td>
<td>114.3</td>
<td>120.7</td>
<td>124.2</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Business Expectations</td>
<td>85.9</td>
<td>86.2</td>
<td>83.3</td>
<td>-0.35</td>
<td>3.12</td>
<td>83.7</td>
<td>83.1</td>
<td>88.7</td>
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The IFO index that measures overall business confidence in West Germany rose from 89.3 in Julyto 90.8 in August, the highest level since June, 2002. Businesses reported improved confidence in their current situation and in the [...]

West German IFO Index Rises to 14-Month High

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Tom Moeller

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 91.2 during August after rising to 93.7 in July, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. The index held steady y/y but has improved from a March low of 88.5. Eight of the 10 index components declined last month. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index increased to 92 in August. It remained higher than its recent low of 65 in November 2023.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months deteriorated in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve fell to -13% in August from -7% in July but remained higher than a record-low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales fell to a net -18% in August, a five-month low. The latest reading as increased from a low of -29% in July 2022. A steady net -16% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down from the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022.

Plans to make capital outlays increased to 24% in August following three straight months at 23%. This reading was up from its recent low of 20% in March but remained below a high of 31% in October 2021. Plans to expand business fell to 4% in August after rising to 5% in July and holding at 4% for the prior four consecutive months. Expected credit conditions deteriorated to -8% in August, after three consecutive months at -7, and remained below its high six months ago.

On the labor front, 56% of respondents reported few or no qualified workers to fill job openings in August, up from 49% in July and the highest percentage since September of last year. These readings were below a high of 61% in May 2022. A net 13% planned to increase employment in August, below the most recent high of 18% in November of last year and a peak of 32% in August 2021.

Overall earnings trends deteriorated sharply last month to the weakest reading since March 2020, falling to -37% in August from -30% in July.

On the pricing front, the net percent raising their average selling prices declined to 20% in August, down from 22% in July and below a high of 66% in March of 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices edged higher to 25% in August from 24% in July but remained well below a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation held steady as a net 33% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, the same as in July but below 38% reported in the June survey. Compensation peaked at 50% in January 2022. A net 20% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, up from 18% in July but below a high of 32% in October 2022.

Inflation continued to be the single most important issue facing small businesses, as reported by 24% of NFIB members in August. The quality of labor was the second most important concern as reported by 21% of members. Other major concerns were taxes, 13%, the cost of labor, 9%, and government requirements, 8%.

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- Expectations for economy & sales decline.
- Employment plans weaken but job openings surge.
- Prices ease but expectations edge higher.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Backpedals in August

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades weakened to $3.36 per gallon (-14.7% y/y) in the week ended September 9 from $3.41 per gallon in the previous week. Prices were below the late-April high of $3.79 per gallon and at the lowest level since the second week of February. They also were below the all-time high of $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Prices are increased, however, versus the low of $3.18 per gallon in the third week of December. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel declined to $3.56 per gallon (-21.7% y/y) last week compared to $3.63 in the prior week. These prices reached a high of $4.63 per gallon in the third week of September of last year.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened to $69.33 per barrel (-20.5% y/y) in the week ended September 6 from $75.97 per barrel in the prior week. Prices roughly equaled the lowest level since the last week of June 2023 and were lower than the $91.45 high in the last week of September 2023. They peaked at $142.46 per barrel in the week of July 4, 2008. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $68.71 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil fell to $75.25 per barrel (-17.6% y/y) in the week ended September 6 compared to $80.83 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $72.37 per barrel.

Natural gas prices averaged $2.04/mmbtu (-19.0% y/y) in the week ended September 6 compared to $1.90 in the prior week. Prices recently touched a high of $2.73/mmbtu in the second week of June and they remained above their low of $1.40/mmbtu in the second week of March. Prices reached a high of $9.56/mmbtu averaged in the last week of August 2022. Yesterday, the price of natural gas was $2.03/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand increased 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ended August 30 after improving 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ended August 23. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.6% y/y in the last four weeks after falling 2.9% y/y in the previous period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ended August 30 after a 0.4% y/y decline during the previous four-week period.

Gasoline inventories rose 2.1% y/y in the week of August 30 after rising 0.5% y/y in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 2.3% y/y after declining 1.9% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 4.0% y/y in the week of August 30, the same as during the prior week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories were 24.0 days in the week ended August 30 following 23.9 days one week earlier. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories fell to 25.0 days in the week of August 30. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U. S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** and **USENERGY** databases.

- Gasoline prices fall to seven-month low.
- Crude oil prices decline sharply.
- Natural gas prices rise slightly.

U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Decline in Latest Week

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Consumer credit outstanding strengthened $25.5 billion (1.9% y/y) in July after rising $5.2 billion in June, revised from $8.9 billion, and increasing $11.7 billion in May, revised from $13.9 billion. It was the largest runup in loan balances since November 2022. A $10.2 billion increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income stood basically unchanged at 24.3% in July, a ratio that has drifted lover the last two years.

Revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, rose $10.6 billion in July (6.6% y/y) following a $0.4 billion decline in June and an $8.5 billion May rise. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions rose 7.2% y/y, down from a high of 17.0% y/y growth in August 2022. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell 8.3% y/y while revolving credit held by credit unions rose 6.3% y/y in July, below the 16.4% y/y peak in February 2022.

Nonrevolving credit outstanding increased $14.8 billion (0.3% y/y) in July after increasing $5.6 billion in June and rising $3.2 billion in May. Nonrevolving credit held by banks fell a lessened 1.8% y/y while finance company credit rose 3.8% y/y. Credit union nonrevolving balances was fairly steady y/y, off from 20.3% y/y growth in January 2023. Federal government balances rose 0.2% y/y to $1.49 trillion.

The value of student loans outstanding totaled $1.75 trillion at the end of June, down 0.9% y/y, and there was $1.56 trillion in motor vehicle loans at the end of June, up 1.8% from a year earlier.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Revolving credit outstanding rebounds.
- Nonrevolving credit gain almost triples.

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Surges in July

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Wholesale trade inventories increased 0.2% (0.4% y/y) during July after holding steady in June, revised from 0.2%, and an unrevised 0.5% May gain. The increase compared to a 0.3% rise expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey and compared to a 0.3% gain in the advance report issued two weeks ago.

Durable goods inventories edged 0.1% higher last month (2.6% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Machinery inventories, the largest sector, fell 0.3% (+12.0% y/y) while motor vehicles & parts, the second largest grouping, edged 0.1% higher (11.8% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories rose 0.5% (-4.0% y/y). Inventories of nondurable goods increased 0.5% (-3.2% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Drug inventories, which make up a quarter of nondurable inventories, rose 2.5% (4.4% y/y). Grocery inventories, the second largest category, eased 0.6% (-2.3% y/y). Petroleum inventories dropped 1.7% (-9.1% y/y). Apparel inventories edged 0.1% higher (-15.1% y/y) and chemical inventories weakened 0.5% (-8.8% y/y).

Sales at the wholesale level strengthened 1.1% (2.9% y/y) in July after a 0.3% June decline, revised from -0.6%. A 0.2% July rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Durable goods sales increased 0.5% in July (3.2% y/y) after a 0.6% increase. Sales of electrical equipment, the largest sector, rose 0.2% (9.7% y/y), the same as in June. Professional and commercial equipment sales, which includes computers, jumped 1.2% (6.0% y/y), while vehicle sales rose 0.4% (5.4% y/y). Nondurable product sales improved 1.6% (2.6% y/y) after declining 1.6% in June. Petroleum product sales, the largest category, rose 3.9% (1.3% y/y). Drug store sales jumped 1.5% (9.3% y/y) while grocery store sales gained 0.3% (2.8% y/y). Sales of apparel jumped 2.5% (3.7% y/y) while chemical sales declined 0.9% (-2.9% y/y). Paper sales rose 0.9% (-2.1% y/y).

The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level eased to 1.35 in July from 1.36 in June and has been moving sideways for the last year.

The I/S ratio for durable goods was minimally changed at 1.80. The machinery ratio declined to 3.09 while motor vehicles rose to 1.89. The I/S ratio for nondurable goods eased to 0.94, down from 1.01 early last year. The petroleum industry I/S ratio slipped to 0.32, and the drug industry moved up to 1.02. Apparel's I/S ratio of 2.19 stood below its 2.67 level one year earlier.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Inventory gain extends trend of moderate accumulation.
- Jump in sales concentrates in nondurables.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio continues sideways movement.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise Modestly in July While Sales Surge