Global| Nov 29 2007US Home Sales Ticked Up in October, Revisions Way Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New single family home sales rose a modest 1.7% last month to 728,00 but the prior month's figures were revised down to the point where so far this year, new home sales are down by nearly one third. Sales during the latest three [...]
New single family home sales rose a modest 1.7% last month to 728,00 but the prior month's figures were revised down to the point where so far this year, new home sales are down by nearly one third. Sales during the latest three months were 45.3% below the peak hit in the middle of 2005.
In the West, sales fell 15.7% last month to a new low and reversed all of a downwardly revised gain in September. Sales out West are down by more than one third this year and they are down by two thirds from the 2005 peak. Sales in the Northeast ticked up 1.8% and they have moved erratically sideways this year. Sales in the Midwest posted a 14.2 m/m gain but are off by one third since year end 2006. Sales in the South also rose 6.8% m/m but are down one quarter this year.
All this weakness in sales has done nothing for prices and they fell another 8.6% last month. The decline left prices down 17.1% from the peak earlier this year.
The number of homes for sale continued down another 2.3% last month and the supply of homes is off a moderate 3.6% this year. However, at the current low sales rate, the months' supply of homes on the market is 8.5, down slightly from September but still double the rate for all of 2005.
| US New Homes | October | September | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 728 | 716 | -23.5% | 1,049 | 1,279 | 1,201 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 217,800 | 238,400 | -13.0% | 243,067 | 234,208 | 217,817 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
