Global| Dec 18 2009UK Consumer Confidence Continues Backtrack
Summary
Consumer Confidence in the UK according to GFK has dropped again in December marking a two-month backtrack in the index. The current household financial situation is in the bottom 9 percentile of its range but the major purchase index [...]
Consumer Confidence in the UK according to GFK has dropped
again in December marking a two-month backtrack in the index. The
current household financial situation is in the bottom 9 percentile of
its range but the major purchase index is in the 71st percentile of its
two year range and 44th percentile of its broader range.
Over the past 12 months the percentile ratings were all below
the 50th percentile and the broad ranges are lower, at or near in the
bottom 25th percentile of their respective ranges.
The outlook components deteriorated across the board in
December except that savings improved and the CPI gauge rose. However,
upper income category survey respondents registered an improved reading
in December as the lower income respondents index fell by a sharp five
points.
Although the GFK index has risen strongly from its very low
recession depths, the new drop is significant and encompasses two
months of backtracking, not just one. It is not the kind of news that
we have been looking for but it fits with the sporadic and conflicted
reports we continue to get out of the UK economy whose readings seem to
run more hot and cold and with more erratic behavior than anywhere
else. Perhaps that is not surprising since the financial crisis has
been severe the UK which was more dependent on its financial sector
than any other country or region.
| % of 2Yr | % of 10Yr | |||||
| Dec-09 | Nov-09 | Oct-09 | Sep-09 | Range | Range | |
| Consumer Confidence | -19 | -17 | -13 | -16 | 64.5% | 50.0% |
| Current | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 15 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Major Purchases | -16 | -19 | -12 | -15 | 71.1% | 44.3% |
| Last 12 Months | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | -14 | -14 | -12 | -13 | 27.3% | 25.0% |
| General Econ Sit | -61 | -59 | -53 | -63 | 40.4% | 30.4% |
| CPI | 58 | 60 | 64 | 67 | 0.0% | 24.6% |
| Savings | -8 | -10 | -6 | -5 | 27.0% | 25.4% |
| Next 12-Months | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 67.7% | 65.6% |
| General Econ Sit | -6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 82.1% | 82.1% |
| Unemployment | 45 | 41 | 46 | 46 | 34.0% | 49.2% |
| Major Purchases | -30 | -28 | -27 | -28 | 45.5% | 40.0% |
| Savings | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 30.4% | 26.9% |
| CPI | 60 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 39.2% | 39.2% |
| By Income | ||||||
| Lower | -26 | -21 | -23 | -23 | 61.3% | 44.2% |
| Upper | -7 | -8 | -8 | -12 | 86.2% | 65.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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