Global| Dec 18 2009UK Consumer Confidence Continues Backtrack
Summary
Consumer Confidence in the UK according to GFK has dropped again in December marking a two-month backtrack in the index. The current household financial situation is in the bottom 9 percentile of its range but the major purchase index [...]
Consumer Confidence in the UK according to GFK has dropped again in December marking a two-month backtrack in the index. The current household financial situation is in the bottom 9 percentile of its range but the major purchase index is in the 71st percentile of its two year range and 44th percentile of its broader range.
Over the past 12 months the percentile ratings were all below the 50th percentile and the broad ranges are lower, at or near in the bottom 25th percentile of their respective ranges.
The outlook components deteriorated across the board in December except that savings improved and the CPI gauge rose. However, upper income category survey respondents registered an improved reading in December as the lower income respondents index fell by a sharp five points.
Although the GFK index has risen strongly from its very low recession depths, the new drop is significant and encompasses two months of backtracking, not just one. It is not the kind of news that we have been looking for but it fits with the sporadic and conflicted reports we continue to get out of the UK economy whose readings seem to run more hot and cold and with more erratic behavior than anywhere else. Perhaps that is not surprising since the financial crisis has been severe the UK which was more dependent on its financial sector than any other country or region.
| % of 2Yr | % of 10Yr | |||||
| Dec-09 | Nov-09 | Oct-09 | Sep-09 | Range | Range | |
| Consumer Confidence | -19 | -17 | -13 | -16 | 64.5% | 50.0% |
| Current | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 15 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Major Purchases | -16 | -19 | -12 | -15 | 71.1% | 44.3% |
| Last 12 Months | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | -14 | -14 | -12 | -13 | 27.3% | 25.0% |
| General Econ Sit | -61 | -59 | -53 | -63 | 40.4% | 30.4% |
| CPI | 58 | 60 | 64 | 67 | 0.0% | 24.6% |
| Savings | -8 | -10 | -6 | -5 | 27.0% | 25.4% |
| Next 12-Months | ||||||
| Household Fin Sit | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 67.7% | 65.6% |
| General Econ Sit | -6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 82.1% | 82.1% |
| Unemployment | 45 | 41 | 46 | 46 | 34.0% | 49.2% |
| Major Purchases | -30 | -28 | -27 | -28 | 45.5% | 40.0% |
| Savings | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 30.4% | 26.9% |
| CPI | 60 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 39.2% | 39.2% |
| By Income | ||||||
| Lower | -26 | -21 | -23 | -23 | 61.3% | 44.2% |
| Upper | -7 | -8 | -8 | -12 | 86.2% | 65.8% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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