Global| Aug 09 2013U.S. Wholesale Inventories Continue To Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Inventories at the wholesale level fell 0.2% (+2.9% y/y) during June following a revised 0.6% drop in May, initially reported as -0.5%. A 0.3% decline (+0.7 y/ in inventories of nondurable goods led June's shortfall. Farm product [...]
Inventories at the wholesale level fell 0.2% (+2.9% y/y) during June following a revised 0.6% drop in May, initially reported as -0.5%. A 0.3% decline (+0.7 y/ in inventories of nondurable goods led June's shortfall. Farm product inventories were off 2.0% (-16.9%y/y). Apparel inventories also fell 1.3% (+0.5% y/y) and paper inventories slipped 0.4% (-2.3% y/y). Working the other way, petroleum inventories increased 1.9% (6.6% y/y). In the durable goods sector, inventories were unchanged (+4.3% y/y). Motor vehicle inventories fell 1.5% (-2.6% y/y) and hardware inventories declined 1.1% (+5.0% y/y). These declines were offset by a 2.1% rise (13.3% y/y) in computer equipment and a 0.6% increase (8.8% y/y) in machinery.
Wholesale sector sales increased 0.4% (5.6% y/y) after a 1.5% May increase, last month reported as 1.6%. Higher prices helped petroleum sales to increase 5.3% (7.7% y/y). This gain offset declines in most other nondurable goods sectors. Chemical sales fell 1.3% (+0.8% y/y) and paper sales dropped 1.1% (+3.2% y/y). Sales of durables rose 1.1% (5.4% y/y) reflecting a 3.7% jump (9.6% y/y) in electrical equipment and a 1.5% increase in computers (2.7% y/y). Metals sales inched up 0.2% (-5.9% y/y).
The wholesale sector's inventory-to-sales ratio slipped to 1.17, the lowest level since September 2011. The durable goods ratio fell to 1.56 but the I/S ratio in the nondurables sector held at 0.84, a low for the economic recovery.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| Sales | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 12.1 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.20(Jun 2012) | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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