Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Mar 31 2010

U.S. Weekly Mortgage Applications Firmed In March

Summary

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while applications for refinancing were weak, purchase applications firmed during March. Overall, applications rose 2.5% this month after a 10.8% increase in February. The gain likely has [...]


The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while applications for refinancing were weak, purchase applications firmed during March. Overall, applications rose 2.5% this month after a 10.8% increase in February.

The gain likely has been fueled by an $8,000 Federal tax credit which is due to expire April 30. For last week, applications to purchase a home rose 8.8% in March but that followed declines during the prior two months. During the last ten years there has been a 51% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales. The correlation has lessened recently. For mortgage refinancings applications were unchanged in March but they still have trended higher since mid-2009.

The effective fixed interest rate on conventional 15-year mortgages held roughly steady at 4.59% last week. For the month, overall rates have been near the six year low. For 30-year mortgages the rate also were steady at 5.19%. Rates reached a high of 5.79% in early-June. Interest rates on fixed 15-year and 30-year mortgages are closely correlated (near-90%) with the rate on 10-year Treasury securities. Rates on adjustable one-year mortgages rose slightly to 6.95% last week.

MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) 03/26/10 03/19/10 03/12/10 Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
Total Market Index 602.8 595.0 620.9 -49.5% 736.4 642.9 652.6
  Purchase 243.0 227.5 221.5 -9.3 263.5 345.4 424.9
  Refinancing 2,707.8 2,744.7 2,955.9 -59.0 3,509.2 2,394.1 1,997.9
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) 4.59 4.53 4.60 4.77 (03/09) 4.85 5.9 6.2
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

    More in Author Profile »

More Economy in Brief