Global| Dec 11 2012U.S. Small Business Optimism Evaporates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Federation of Independent Business indicated that its November Index of Small Business Optimism collapsed to 87.5 from 93.1 in October. The figure was its lowest since March 2010. A net negative 35% of firms expected the [...]
The National Federation of Independent Business indicated that its November Index of Small Business Optimism collapsed to 87.5 from 93.1 in October. The figure was its lowest since March 2010. A net negative 35% of firms expected the economy to improve, a record low. The percent expecting higher real sales in six months also fell to its lowest (-5%) in nearly a year. The percent of firms with one or more job openings improved m/m to a relatively low 17%. A modest 5% percent of firms planed to increase employment and a relatively low 22% planned on increasing capital expenditures.
The percentage of firms planning to raise worker compensation dropped out of bed to 4%, down from its February high of 12%. The percentage of firms reporting that credit was harder to get jumped to 9%, its highest level in six months but still down versus the early-2009 high of 16%. No firms were lifting average selling prices while the 16% who were planning to raise prices was down from the recovery high of 24%.
The most important problems faced by small business were poor sales (23%), taxes (23%), government requirements (18%), insurance cost & availability (7%), inflation (6%), quality of labor (6%), competition from large businesses (5%), cost of labor (4%) and financial & interest rates (3%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
| National Federation of Independent Business | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (SA,1986=100) | 87.5 | 93.1 | 92.8 | 92.0 | 91.4 | 89.9 | 86.7 |
| Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | -5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -11 |
| Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | -35 | 2 | 2 | -12 | -9 | -1 | -0 |
| Firms With One or More Job Openings (Net %) | 17 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 9 |
| Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicants For Job Openings (Net %) | 36 | 38 | 41 | 35 | 32 | 27 | -- |
| Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 9 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -12 | -20 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
