Global| Oct 16 2020U.S. Retail Sales Post Surprising Increase During September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Consumer spending improves broadly. Consumer spending was notably firm last month, rising for the fifth consecutive month, despite limited store openings due to COVID-19. Total retail sales, including food service & drinking [...]
• Consumer spending improves broadly.
Consumer spending was notably firm last month, rising for the fifth consecutive month, despite limited store openings due to COVID-19. Total retail sales, including food service & drinking establishments, increased 1.9% (5.4% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.6% August rise. July's 1.1% gain was revised from 0.9%. A 0.7% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts improved 1.5% last month after increasing 0.5% in August, revised from 0.7%. July's increase was revised to 1.6% from 1.3%. A 0.4% gain had been anticipated. In the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, sales rose 1.4% (9.1% y/y) after easing 0.3% in August and rising 1.2% in July. Retail sales excluding restaurants rose 1.9% last month (8.2% y/y) after improving 0.2% in August.
Sales of motor vehicle & parts dealerships strengthened 3.6% (10.9% y/y) in September compared to a 7.5% rise in unit vehicle sales reported earlier this month. It followed a 0.7% rise in August which came after a 0.6% July decline. Gasoline & service station sales improved 1.5% (-13.3% y/y), even though seasonally adjusted prices eased 3.0% m/m. Building materials & garden store sales rose 0.6% (19.1% y/y) after improving 2.4% in August.
Apparel & accessory store sales surged 11.0% (-12.5% y/y) after improving 1.4% in August. General merchandise stores sales strengthened 1.8% (4.3% y/y) after easing 0.4% in August. Department store sales jumped 9.7% (-7.3% y/y) and reversed August's 2.2% decline. Sales of nonstore retailers improved 0.5% (23.8% y/y) as shopping from home became less prevalent. Furniture & home furnishing store sales edged 0.5% higher (4.6% y/y) following two straight 2.1% increases. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales jumped 5.7% (14.4% y/y) following two months of sharp decline. Electronics & appliance store sales fell 1.6% (-6.4% y/y) after a 0.4% gain.
Grocery & beverage store sales held steady last month (10.5% y/y) after falling 1.4% in August. In another nondiscretionary category, health & personal care products sales rose 1.7% (5.3% y/y) after a 0.5% dip.
Eating out remained relatively strong as restaurant and drinking establishment sales rose 2.1% last month (-14.4% y/y), the smallest of four straight months of strong growth.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Assessing Recent Stock Market Valuation with Macro Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Excluding Autos | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Retail Sales | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Retail Less Autos | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 3.6 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| Food & Beverage Stores | 0.0 | -1.4 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Gasoline Service Stations | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4.5 | -13.3 | -0.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | -14.4 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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