Global| May 13 2008U.S. Retail Sales Fell in April, Nonauto Sales Firmer
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. retail sales fell an expected 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.2% March increase. These latest two months' sales point up the recent weakness in consumer spending. The April sales level was down 0.8% from its peak last [...]
U.S. retail sales fell an expected 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.2% March increase. These latest two months' sales point up the recent weakness in consumer spending. The April sales level was down 0.8% from its peak last November. On a three month basis overall retail sales were down 2.0% (AR).
Lower sales of motor vehicles & parts account for much of that weakness. A 2.8% (-7.3% y/y) April decline was the sixth drop in the last seven months and it mirrored the 4.3% m/m decline in unit vehicle sales last month.
Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.5% and the rise exceeded expectations for a 0.2% gain. That gain followed a revised 0.4% March increase which was revised up from the 0.2% advance reported initially.
Lower sales at gasoline service stations also accounted for some of last month's weakness in overall retail spending. They fell 0.4% (+16.3% y/y) after a 1.6% March jump. The sales decline occurred as the pump price of gasoline rose 6.6% m/m. Retail sales less gasoline & autos rose 0.6% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.2% March gain that was revised up from no change. On a three month basis these sales improved to a 3.2% rate of growth from a low of -1.0% this past February.
Sales of discretionary items improved. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance store sales finally rose, by 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) after four consecutive months of flat or lower sales. The gain was due to a 1.4% (4.0% y/y) jump in sales of electronics & appliances. Sales of furniture & home furnishings continued to languish, however, and ticked up just 0.1% (-5.1% y/y). Apparel store sales rose 0.7% (3.0% y/y) following a similar gain in March that was revised up from a 0.5% decline reported initially. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.5% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick that was revised up from a sharp 0.6% decline reported last month.
Building materials & garden equipment sales surged 1.9% (-2.0% y/y) and recouped the 1.5% decline during March.
April sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) fell slightly m/m (+2.4% y/y) after a 0.5% March increase, but that increase was revised down from the 2.1% surge reported initially.
Restaurant and drinking places sales rose 0.9% (4.2% y/y) last month.
Liquidity Provision by the Federal Reserve is today's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it can be found here
| April | March | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.5% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% |
| Less Gasoline | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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