Global| Jun 05 2017U.S. Productivity Revised Upward and Cost Pressures Are Lowered
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm output per hour remained unchanged during Q1'17 (1.2% y/y) revised from the preliminary report of a 0.6% decline. A 0.1% dip had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Output grew an upwardly revised 1.7% (2.5% [...]
Nonfarm output per hour remained unchanged during Q1'17 (1.2% y/y) revised from the preliminary report of a 0.6% decline. A 0.1% dip had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Output grew an upwardly revised 1.7% (2.5% y/y) and hours-worked advanced 1.7% (1.3% y/y). Compensation improved 2.2% (2.3% y/y), revised from 2.4%. Revisions further indicate, however, that compensation declined 3.0% during Q4'16 instead of last month's report of a 3.1% rise. As a result, last quarter's 2.2% rise in unit labor costs (revised from 3.0%) followed a 4.6% decline during Q4, revised from +1.3%. A 2.5% Q1 increase had been expected.
Factory sector productivity improved a little-revised 0.5% (0.3% y/y) after a 2.0% rise. Output increased 2.6% (0.9% y/y) while hours worked rose 2.1% (0.6% y/y). Compensation increased 2.9% (3.2% y/y), revised from a 4.2% gain reported last month. Compensation in Q4'16 is now indicated to have declined 1.5%, a revision from last month's report of a 4.2% increase. Unit labor costs gained 2.4% (2.9% y/y) last quarter, revised from 2.1%. Unit costs during Q4'16, however, are now shown to have declined at a 3.4% rate versus last month's indication of a 2.2% increase.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and are found in the AS1REPNA database.
| Productivity & Costs (SAAR, %) | Q1'17 | Q4'16 | Q3'16 | Q1'17 Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Compensation per Hour | 2.2 | -3.0 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 2.2 | -4.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 0.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Compensation per Hour | 2.9 | -1.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 2.4 | -3.4 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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