Global| Sep 07 2017U.S. Productivity Improvement Is Revised Upward
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector grew at a 1.5% annual rate (1.3% y/y) in the second quarter, revised from 0.9% estimated last month. A 1.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Output rose [...]
Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector grew at a 1.5% annual rate (1.3% y/y) in the second quarter, revised from 0.9% estimated last month. A 1.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Output rose 4.0% (2.8% y/y) while hours worked gained 2.5% (1.5% y/y). The modest productivity gains during the last two quarters left y/y growth at 1.3%. During all of last year, productivity declined 0.1% following a 1.3% rise in 2015.
Unit labor costs increased 0.2% last quarter (-0.2% y/y) following a 4.8% gain. These figures were revised from 0.6% and 5.4%, respectively. A 0.4% gain had been expected. Compensation costs increased 1.8% last quarter (1.1% y/y) after a 4.9% rise.
In the manufacturing sector, productivity rose 2.9% (1.1% y/y) last quarter, revised from 2.5%, following a 0.2% Q1 rise. Output grew 2.1% (1.6% y/y) while hours worked fell 0.7% (+0.5% y/y). Productivity growth during the last two quarters of 1.6% was improved from the 0.2% gain in 2016.
Unit labor costs in the factory sector fell a little-revised 0.4% last quarter (+0.1% y/y) following a 4.3% increase, revised from 3.9%. During the last two quarters, average growth of 2.0% compared to last year's 0.6% rise. Compensation per hour grew 2.5% (1.3% y/y) during Q2 following a 4.4% rise.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and are found in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions is available here.
| Productivity & Costs (SAAR, %) | Q2'17 | Q1'17 | Q4'16 | Q2'17 Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | -0.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Compensation per Hour | 1.8 | 4.9 | -4.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 0.2 | 4.8 | -5.7 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 2.9 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| Compensation per Hour | 2.5 | 4.4 | -4.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Unit Labor Costs | -0.4 | 4.3 | -6.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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