Global| Aug 10 2004U.S. Productivity Growth Surprisingly Strong in 2Q
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Non-farm labor productivity grew 2.9% last quarter, a slowdown from 3.7% growth in 1Q but firmer than Consensus expectations for 2.0% growth. Part of the upside surprise was due to a 3.8% (5.9% y/y) gain in non-farm output versus the [...]
Non-farm labor productivity grew 2.9% last quarter, a slowdown from 3.7% growth in 1Q but firmer than Consensus expectations for 2.0% growth.
Part of the upside surprise was due to a 3.8% (5.9% y/y) gain in non-farm output versus the 3.0% (4.8% y/y) rise in 2Q real GDP. Hours worked by all persons (employment times hours) also rose just a slight 0.8% (1.1% y/y).
Unit labor costs nevertheless grew at the fastest rate quarterly rate in a year, up 1.9% as compensation grew 4.9% (4.8% y/y).
Productivity in the manufacturing sector surged 7.5% (6.0% y/y) and rebounded from weak 2.8% growth in 1Q. Unit labor costs in the factory sector fell 2.2% (0.0% y/y).
| Non-farm Business Sector (SAAR) | 2Q '04 (Prelim) | 1Q '04 (Final) | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Output per Hour | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| Compensation | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% |
| Unit Labor Costs | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.3% | -1.1% | 1.5% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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