Global| Aug 10 2017U.S. Producer Prices Dip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index eased 0.1% during July (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick during June. A 0.1% rise in the index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food & energy [...]
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index eased 0.1% during July (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick during June. A 0.1% rise in the index had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food & energy also slipped 0.1% last month (+1.8% y/y) following a 0.1% rise. A 0.2% gain had been expected.
An updated measure of core producer price inflation is the overall index excluding food, energy and trade services. It remained unchanged last month (1.9% y/y) following a 0.2% increase.
Final demand goods prices slipped 0.1% (+2.3% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. The price index excluding food & energy eased 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.1% gain.
A 0.3% decline in energy prices (+4.1% y/y) followed a 0.5% June drop. Gasoline prices fell 1.4% (+2.7% y/y), the fifth decline in the last six months. Home heating oil prices weakened 3.5% (-5.3% y/y), down for the sixth straight month. Natural gas prices weakened 2.3% (+7.2% y/y). Electric power costs fell 0.2% (3.3% y/y). Food prices remained unchanged (1.0% y/y) after a 0.6% jump. Beef & veal prices fell 12.0% (1.1% y/y) reversing two months of strong increase. Egg prices fell 0.5% (-5.0% y/y). Dairy product prices eased 0.1% (+4.2% y/y) while fresh fruit & melon costs rebounded 5.1% (13.1% y/y).
Nondurable consumer goods prices less food & energy ticked 0.1% higher (3.4% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. Durable consumer goods prices fell 0.3% (+1.0% y/y), the first month of sharp decline in twelve months. Passenger car prices fell 0.9% (-0.3% y/y) and light truck prices were off 0.3% (+1.7% y/y). Capital equipment held steady (0.9% y/y) after rising 0.2%.
Final demand for services prices fell 0.2% (+1.8% y/y), the first decline since February. Trade services prices were off 0.5% (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Private passenger transportation prices fell 2.6% (-1.3% y/y), the fifth decline this year.
Final demand construction prices strengthened 1.2% (3.2% y/y) as prices for private capital investment weakened 1.2% (+3.1% y/y). Prices for public investment gained 1.3% (3.3% y/y).
Prices for intermediate demand for goods eased 0.1% (+3.5 y/y) following a 0.2% shortfall.
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (SA, %) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Demand | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 1.8 |
| Excluding Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goods | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 2.3 | -1.5 | -4.9 | 1.4 |
| Foods | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.9 | -3.2 | -3.1 | 3.7 |
| Energy | -0.3 | -0.5 | -3.0 | 4.1 | -8.2 | -25.6 | -3.2 |
| Goods Excluding Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Services | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Trade Services | -0.5 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Construction | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 3.5 | -5.7 | -14.0 | 1.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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