Global| Apr 12 2013U.S. PPI Whipsawed By Food & Energy; Core Trends Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.6% last month (+1.1% y/y) and reversed an unrevised 0.7% February gain. The decline exceeded expectations for a 0.2% dip. Prices excluding food & energy gained 0.2% (1.7% y/y) for the [...]
The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.6% last
month (+1.1% y/y) and reversed an unrevised 0.7% February gain.
The decline exceeded expectations for a 0.2% dip. Prices excluding
food & energy gained 0.2% (1.7% y/y) for the third straight
month, as expected. Energy prices led the decline in overall
prices with a 3.4% drop (-1.9% y/y) which reversed the 3.0%
February rise. Gasoline prices fell 6.8% (-4.7% y/y) while home
heating oil prices were off 7.9% (-6.2% y/y). Residential gas
prices, however, spiked 2.1% (4.7% y/y). Partially offsetting the
energy price weakness was a 0.8% rise (3.1% y/y) in food prices
after a 0.5% February drop. Fresh fruit prices surged 5.3% (10.3%
y/y) but beef costs slipped 0.1% (+6.0% y/y).
Finished consumer goods prices backpedaled 0.8% (+1.3% y/y) but excluding food & energy prices gained another 0.2% (2.4% y/y). Within the components, men's apparel prices were up 2.8% y/y while women's clothing costs increased an improved 2.3% y/y. Household appliance prices ticked up a greatly reduced 0.5% y/y, furniture prices rose a steady 2.0% y/y and passenger car prices ticked up 0.1% y/y. Capital equipment prices again edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y).
Intermediate goods prices fell 0.9% (-0.8% y/y) as energy costs declined 4.7% (-5.4% y/y). Food prices ticked up 0.1% (4.8% y/y). Core intermediate prices rose 0.2% (0.2% y/y. Crude goods prices fell 2.5% (-0.1% y/y) last month as an 8.5% decline (-1.9% y/y) in energy prices was offset by a 1.9% rise (5.4% y/y) in food prices. Prices excluding food & energy increased 0.9% (-4.7% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Foods | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| Energy | -3.4 | 3.0 | -0.4 | -1.9 | -0.2 | 15.5 | 13.5 |
| Intermediate Goods | -0.9 | 1.3 | 0.0 | -0.8 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Crude Goods | -2.5 | -0.3 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -3.2 | 17.4 | 21.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.9 | -1.7 | -0.3 | -4.7 | -5.2 | 18.5 | 32.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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