Global| Dec 23 2011U.S. Personal Income & Spending Post A Negligible Gain
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
November was a month of depressed gains for consumer income & outlays. Personal income ticked up just 0.1% following an unrevised 0.4% October increase. The figure disappointed Consensus expectations for a 0.3% rise. A slip in wage & [...]
November was a month of depressed gains for consumer income & outlays. Personal income ticked up just 0.1% following an unrevised 0.4% October increase. The figure disappointed Consensus expectations for a 0.3% rise. A slip in wage & salary disbursements (+3.4% y/y) accounted for much of the slack increase. In addition proprietors' income fell 0.3% (+2.7% y/y) but rental income rose 2.1% (21.0% y/y). Interest income gained 0.2% (-0.3% y/y) and dividend income rose 0.5% (8.3% y/y). Disposable income was essentially unchanged (+2.4% y/y). Adjusted for price inflation, disposable income also was roughly unchanged (-0.1% y/y).
Personal consumption expenditures also rose just 0.1% (4.3% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Expectations had been for a 0.3% rise. The increase was held back by a 0.3% decline in nondurables which reflected lower gasoline prices. Spending of clothing rose 0.6% (4.0% y/y). For durables, motor vehicle outlays rose 0.8% (8.9% y/y) and spending on furniture gained 0.5% (4.9% y/y). Adjusted for price inflation spending rose 0.2% (1.7% y/y).
The personal savings rate remained depressed at 3.5%. October's rate was revised to 3.6% from 3.5% reported last month but the savings rate remained down from the 8.3% monthly peak reached in 2008.
The PCE chain price index slipped marginally last month (+2.5% y/y) paced by a 2.3% drop (+19.8%) drop in gasoline prices. The core PCE price deflator again rose marginally m/m. The y/y increase of 1.7% was up from the record-low 12-month change of 0.9% reached last December. Notable amongst the categories last month was a 5.0% y/y gain in food & beverage costs and a 4.6% y/y rise in clothing prices. In the durables sector recreational goods prices posted a 7.0% y/y drop including a greater decline in video & audio equipment. Motor vehicle prices rose 3.4% y/y, appliance prices rose 1.7% y/y but furniture costs slipped 0.5%.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Personal Income
& Outlays (%) |
Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 3.7 | -4.3 | 4.6 |
| Wages & Salaries | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | -4.3 | 2.0 |
| Disposable Personal Income |
-0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3.6 | -2.1 | 5.8 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures |
0.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 3.8 | -1.7 | 2.7 |
| Saving Rate | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 5.1 (Nov'10) |
5.3 | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| PCE Chain Price Index | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 3.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Real Disposable Income |
-0.0 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.8 | -2.3 | 2.4 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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