Global| Oct 27 2014U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve Marginally
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Pending sales of single-family homes gained 0.3% last month (1.0% y/y) following an unrevised 1.0% decline during August, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales remained at nearly the highest level since August [...]
Pending sales of single-family homes gained 0.3% last month (1.0% y/y) following an unrevised 1.0% decline during August, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales remained at nearly the highest level since August 2013.
Home sales were mixed throughout the country. In the Northeast, sales improved 1.2% (2.9% y/y) following a 3.0% decline. In the South, sales rebounded 1.4% (1.7% y/y), recovering a 1.5% August drop. Working the other way, sales in the West slipped 0.8% (+3.6% y/y) following strong gains in the prior two months. Sales in the Midwest were off 1.2% (-4.0% y/y), down for the fourth straight month.
The pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department. They measure home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. In developing the model for the index, the NAR demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
How Much Slack Is in the Labor Market? That Depends on What You Mean by Slack from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found here.
| Pending Home Sales (%, SA) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3 | -1.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 11.3 | 1.3 |
| Northeast | 1.2 | -3.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 16.6 | -4.0 |
| Midwest | -1.2 | -2.1 | -0.4 | -4.0 | 10.4 | 17.7 | 2.2 |
| South | 1.4 | -1.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 5.4 | 12.7 | 1.4 |
| West | -0.8 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 | -3.6 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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