Global| Mar 31 2021U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall Sharply in February
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Sales are constrained by limited supply. • Harsh winter weather likely also constrained sales. Pending home sales fell 10.6% (-0.5% y/y) during February following a 2.4% January drop, revised from -2.8%. According to the National [...]
• Sales are constrained by limited supply.
• Harsh winter weather likely also constrained sales.
Pending home sales fell 10.6% (-0.5% y/y) during February following a 2.4% January drop, revised from -2.8%. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), recent sales weakness reflected a record low number of homes on the market.
The weakest region was the South where sales fell 13.0% (+2.9% y/y). Sales in the Midwest declined 9.5% (-6.1 y/y) while sales in the Northeast weakened 9.2% (-3.9% y/y) after a sharp January fall. In the Western region of the country, pending home sales fell 7.4% (+1.9% y/y), about as they did in January.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.
The series dates back to 2001, and are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, % chg) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -10.6 | -2.4 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 6.9 | 1.0 | -4.1 |
| Northeast | -9.2 | -7.4 | 1.0 | -3.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | -5.2 |
| Midwest | -9.5 | -0.9 | -2.1 | -6.1 | 7.7 | -0.3 | -4.6 |
| South | -13.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 8.5 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| West | -7.4 | -7.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 5.9 | 1.1 | -7.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
