Global| Sep 27 2018U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall Again
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of existing homes fell again in August, dropping 1.8% after July's 0.8% decrease, revised from -0.7%. This latest move was the fourth decline in the last five [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of existing homes fell again in August, dropping 1.8% after July's 0.8% decrease, revised from -0.7%. This latest move was the fourth decline in the last five months, taking the August sales index level down to 104.2 (2001=100) compared to 106.1 in July and off 2.3% y/y. A recent peak for these sales was 113.0 in April 2016, and the all-time high for this index was 127.0 in April 2005, during the housing "boom" before the Great Recession.
Pending sales fell in all four major regions of the country in August. The biggest decline was in the West, -5.9% to 89.1 from 94.7 in July, and down a sizable 11.3% year-on-year. In the Northeast, sales fell 1.3% in the month to 92.7, down 1.6% y/y. Sales in the South were off 0.7% to 121.3, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In the Midwest, they edged down 0.5% to 101.6, pushing the y/y comparison to -1.1%.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 104.2 | 106.1 | 107.0 | -2.3 | 109.0 | 109.8 | 108.8 |
| Northeast | 92.7 | 93.9 | 93.7 | -1.6 | 97.2 | 96.4 | 90.8 |
| Midwest | 101.6 | 102.1 | 101.9 | -1.1 | 104.8 | 107.4 | 107.1 |
| South | 121.3 | 122.2 | 124.2 | +1.3 | 123.8 | 122.9 | 123.1 |
| West | 89.1 | 94.7 | 95.6 | -11.3 | 99.6 | 102.4 | 102.2 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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