Global| Jan 29 2015U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline in December and for All of 2014
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes declined 3.7% last month (+6.1% y/y) following a revised 0.6% November increase, last month reported as 0.8%. For all of last year, pending [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending sales of single-family homes declined 3.7% last month (+6.1% y/y) following a revised 0.6% November increase, last month reported as 0.8%. For all of last year, pending home sales declined 3.5% and reversed most of the 4.5% gain in 2013. These sales are reported as an index with 2001=100. The December value was 100.7, down 20.7% from the peak of 127.0 in April 2005. It nevertheless remained up by 30.6% from the recession low of 77.1 in June 2010.
Home sales in the Northeast fell 7.5% last month (+6.3% y/y) and nudged 0.4% lower for the full year. Sales in the West declined 4.6% in December (+6.3% y/y) and were off 6.9% during all of 2014. Home sales in the Midwest fell 2.8% (+1.9% y/y) and retreated 5.8% for the year. In the South, pending home sales declined 2.6% last month (+8.6% y/y) and fell 1.4% during the whole year.
The pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department. They measure home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. In developing the model for the index, the NAR demonstrated that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (%, SA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -3.7 | 0.6 | -1.2 | 6.1 | -3.5 | 4.5 | 11.3 |
| Northeast | -7.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 6.3 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 16.6 |
| Midwest | -2.8 | -0.5 | -0.8 | 1.9 | -5.8 | 10.4 | 17.7 |
| South | -2.6 | 1.3 | -1.1 | 8.6 | -1.4 | 5.4 | 12.7 |
| West | -4.6 | 0.4 | -3.2 | 6.3 | -6.9 | -3.6 | 1.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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