Global| Nov 04 2016U.S. Payroll Increase Fades; Earnings Growth Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Nonfarm payroll employment increased 161,000 (1.7% y/y) during October following revised gains of 191,000 and 176,000 in September and August. These had been reported as 156,000 and 167,000, respectively. A 174,000 rise in employment [...]
Nonfarm payroll employment increased 161,000 (1.7% y/y) during October following revised gains of 191,000 and 176,000 in September and August. These had been reported as 156,000 and 167,000, respectively. A 174,000 rise in employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Weaker job creation was logged by each major employment category, except government. The Labor Department indicated that Hurricane Matthew "affected parts of the East Coast during the October reference period." From the household survey, the unemployment rate edged lower to an expected 4.9%. The overall unemployment rate, including marginally attached and those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 9.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% (2.8% y/y). A 0.3% rise was expected.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 161 | 191 | 176 | 1.7 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Previous | -- | 156 | 167 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -9 | -8 | -16 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Construction | 11 | 23 | -6 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| Private Service-Producing | 142 | 174 | 158 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Government | 19 | 3 | 44 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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