Global| Feb 03 2017U.S. Payroll Increase Accelerates; Wage Gains Slow
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market started the new year on a firm footing. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 227,000 (1.5% y/y) following increases of 157,000 and 164,000, previously reported as 156,000 and 204,000. The latest gain was the strongest [...]
The job market started the new year on a firm footing. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 227,000 (1.5% y/y) following increases of 157,000 and 164,000, previously reported as 156,000 and 204,000. The latest gain was the strongest since September. Expectations had been for a 165,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Data back to 2012 were revised and added slightly to growth in 2016. Average hourly earnings nudged 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y). The December gain was revised down to 0.2% from 0.4%, but the November figure was revised up. A 0.3% increase had been expected. The unemployment rate increased to 4.8% versus an expected 4.7%. It was the highest rate in three months, up from the November low of 4.6%. The total unemployment rate including marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons rose to 9.4% from 9.2%.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 227 | 157 | 164 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Previous | -- | 156 | 204 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 5 | 11 | 0 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Construction | 36 | 2 | 28 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 192 | 150 | 143 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Government | -10 | -8 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
