Global| Jan 10 2014U.S. Payroll Employment Gain Disappoints; Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest Since 2008
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Weather may have been a factor, but nonfarm payroll employment growth of 74,000 (1.6% y/y) during December was well short of gains of 241,000 and 200,000 during the prior two months. The rise disappointed consensus expectations for [...]
Weather may have been a factor, but nonfarm payroll employment growth of 74,000 (1.6% y/y) during December was well short of gains of 241,000 and 200,000 during the prior two months. The rise disappointed consensus expectations for growth of 196,000. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7%, the lowest level since October 2008. Expectations were for 7.0%. The total jobless rate, including workers who are marginally attached and part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 13.1%, the lowest level since November 2008.
The figures referenced above are available in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail can be found in the LABOR and in the EMPL databases. The expectation figures are from Action Economics and are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (M/M Chg., 000s) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 74 | 241 | 200 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Previous | -- | 203 | 200 | -- | 1.4 | 1.2 | |
| Manufacturing | 9 | 31 | 17 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Construction | -16 | 19 | 8 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| Private Service Producing | 90 | 175 | 187 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Government | -13 | 15 | -17 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.8 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 (Dec'12) |
34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Average Private Sector Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 7.9 (Dec'12) |
7.4 | 8.1 | 8.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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