Global| Apr 03 2020U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Collapse; Jobless Rate Surges by Almost One Poin
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market unwound during March. The figures in today's report derive from a survey taken three weeks ago and, therefore, miss the bulk of the recent layoff activity due to the coronavirus outbreak. r, those numbers only take into [...]
The job market unwound during March. The figures in today's report derive from a survey taken three weeks ago and, therefore, miss the bulk of the recent layoff activity due to the coronavirus outbreak. r, those numbers only take into account payroll activity through March 12, before the period of social distancing resulting from attempts to halt the coronavirus spread.
Nonfarm payroll employment declined 701,000 (+1.0% y/y) with the majority of the deterioration occurring in service-producing industries. The plunge in March came after a 275,000 total payroll increase in February, revised from 273,000. Payrolls rose 214,000 in January, revised from 273,000. A 100,000 fall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Average hourly earnings in the private sector actually rose 0.4%, following an unrevised 0.3% February improvement. A 0.2% rise had been expected. Growth of 3.1% y/y remained below its 12-month peak of 3.5%.
The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% last month. It was the highest level since August 2017. A rise to 3.8% had been expected. Employment in the household survey weakened 2.987 million while the labor force declined 1.663 million. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, increased to 8.7%, its highest level in three years.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | -701 | 275 | 214 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 273 | 273 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -18 | 13 | -22 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Construction | -29 | 41 | 38 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | -659 | 185 | 166 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Government | 12 | 33 | 35 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.2 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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