Global| Sep 07 2018U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment and Wage Growth Pick Up; Jobless Rate Steadies
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market firmed last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 201,000 (1.6% y/y) during August following a 147,000 July rise, which was revised down from 157,000 estimated last month. The gain in June payrolls also was lessened to [...]
The labor market firmed last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 201,000 (1.6% y/y) during August following a 147,000 July rise, which was revised down from 157,000 estimated last month. The gain in June payrolls also was lessened to 208,000 from 248,000. A 190,000 rise in August employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The y/y increase in average hourly earnings during August rose to 2.9%, the strongest gain since June 2009. On a monthly basis, wages increased 0.4% following an unrevised 0.3% July gain. June's rise was strengthened, however, to 0.2% from 0.1%. A 0.2% increase in August wages had been anticipated.
The unemployment rate remained at 3.9%. A dip to 3.8% had been expected. The total unemployment rate, including those marginally attached and working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.4%, the lowest level since April 2001.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 201 | 147 | 208 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 157 | 248 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -3 | 18 | 21 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Construction | 23 | 18 | 8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 178 | 117 | 156 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Government | -3 | -6 | 16 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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