Global| Sep 25 2009U.S. New Home Sales Rise For Fifth Straight Month As Prices Decline To 2003 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales of new single-family homes rose during August for the fifth consecutive month of increase. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 429,000 was up a disappointing 0.7% from a downwardly revised July level of 426,000. [...]
Sales of new single-family homes rose during August for the fifth consecutive month of increase. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 429,000 was up a disappointing 0.7% from a downwardly revised July level of 426,000. Nevertheless, sales have risen by nearly one-third from their January low. August sales fell short of expectations for 440,000.
Price discounts seem to have prompted the latest rise in sales. The median price of a new home fell to $195,200 from an upwardly revised July level. The latest figure, which was down 11.7% y/y, was the lowest level since October of 2003. The average price of a new home was less weak and off 3.3% y/y.
Only sales in the West posted an increase last month. The 12.1% m/m gain was to the highest level since July of last year. Sales have risen by nearly one-third from their low but were three-quarters below the 2005 high. That m/m gain in the West was offset by the second consecutive monthly sales decline in the Midwest. Sales there still were off by almost one-third from last year and by 81% from their 2003 peak. Sales in the Northeast also reversed most of their July gain with a 16.3% decline which left them two-thirds below the 2004 peak. In the South sales were unchanged m/m but still were off by two-thirds from the 2005 peak.
Price discounts, higher sales and much lower housing starts have combined to lower the overhang of unsold homes. The August decline dropped them by more than one-third versus last year to the lowest level since 1992. In the West the number of homes for sale fell to a record low. The months' supply of unsold homes at 7.3 months was down from the high of 12.4 months registered in January.
Longer Days, Fewer Weekends is today's speech by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and it can be found here.
| US New Homes | August | July | June | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 429 | 426 | 400 | -3.4% | 481 | 769 | 1,049 |
| Northeast | 36 | 43 | 34 | 28.6 | 35 | 64 | 64 |
| Midwest | 49 | 52 | 62 | -31.9 | 69 | 118 | 161 |
| South | 224 | 224 | 195 | -11.1 | 264 | 408 | 559 |
| West | 120 | 107 | 109 | 30.4 | 113 | 178 | 266 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 195,200 | 215,600 | 212,500 | -11.7 | 230,408 | 243,742 | 243,067 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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