Global| Aug 26 2008U.S. New-Home Sales Off By Two-Thirds from Peak
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Sales new single-family homes in July rose 2.4% to 515,000. The increase, however, merely recovered a 2.1% fall during June which was deeper than estimated initially. The level of sales in July was down 62.9% from the July 2005 peak. [...]
Sales new single-family homes in July rose 2.4% to 515,000. The increase, however, merely recovered a 2.1% fall during June which was deeper than estimated initially. The level of sales in July was down 62.9% from the July 2005 peak. The latest level of sales fell short of expectations for 525,000.
By region sales in the South repeated their June decline and fell 2.5% and they are down 17.6% since December. In the Midwest the pace of monthly declines accelerated to 8.2% and they are off 9.5% this year. In the West sales rose 9.9% but that monthly increase still left them off 9.6% so far this year. Though sales in the Northeast rose by more than one-third they remained down 10.7% since December.
The median price for a new single-family home rose very slightly for the second consecutive month to $230,700 but prices still were off 6.3% y/y.
The number of new homes for sale again fell sharply, by 5.2% (-22.8% y/y). That reduced the inventory of unsold homes to the lowest level since late-2004. In each of the country's regions the inventory is down just short of one-quarter during the last year.
The month's supply of new homes for sale ticked lower m/m to 10.1 from an upwardly revised June level.
If Exchange Rates Are Random Walks, Then Almost Everything We Say About Monetary Policy Is Wrong from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found here.
| US New Homes | July | June | Y/Y (%) | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 515 | 503 | -35.3 | 768 | 1,049 | 1,279 |
| Northeast | 50 | 36 | 4.2 | 64 | 64 | 81 |
| Midwest | 67 | 73 | -36.2 | 118 | 161 | 203 |
| South | 276 | 283 | -35.8 | 408 | 559 | 638 |
| West | 122 | 111 | -42.7 | 178 | 266 | 356 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 230,700 | 230,100 | -6.3 | 243,742 | 243,067 | 234,208 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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