Global| Jul 24 2014U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Reverse Course
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales during June fell 8.1% (-11.5% y/y) to 406,000 and reversed May's 8.3% gain to 442,000, initially reported as 504,000. Sales during April also were revised lower. The latest figure fell short of expectations for 480,000 [...]
New home sales during June fell 8.1% (-11.5% y/y) to 406,000 and reversed May's 8.3% gain to 442,000, initially reported as 504,000. Sales during April also were revised lower. The latest figure fell short of expectations for 480,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The median price for a new home declined 3.2% (+5.3% y/y) to $273,500 and reversed most of its little-revised May increase. Despite this volatility, median home prices during Q2 were a record $276,233. The average price of a new home improved 3.5% (8.3% y/y) to $331,400 and made up declines during the prior two months.
Sales declines in June were broad-based and led by a 20.0% drop (-27.3 y/y) in the Northeast. Sales in the South were off 9.5% (-17.4% y/y). Sales in the Midwest declined 8.2% (+19.% y/y) while sales in the West fell 1.9% (-9.4% y/y).
The inventory of unsold homes increased 3.1% (23.1%) to the highest level since October 2010. The months' sales supply of new homes gained to 5.8 months, its highest since October 2011. The length of time to sell a new home was roughly steady m/m at 3.4 months. That was up from 2.9 months last August but down from 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 406 | 442 | 408 | -11.5 | 430 | 368 | 306 |
| Northeast | 24 | 30 | 21 | -27.3 | 31 | 29 | 21 |
| Midwest | 67 | 73 | 69 | 19.6 | 61 | 47 | 45 |
| South | 209 | 231 | 224 | -17.4 | 233 | 196 | 168 |
| West | 106 | 108 | 94 | -9.4 | 106 | 97 | 72 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 273,500 | 282,600 | 272,600 | 5.3 | 265,092 | 242,108 | 224,317 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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