Global| Nov 09 2016U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 1.2% last week (+17.6% y/y), the same as during the prior week. Refinancing applications fell 2.7% (+22.7% y/y) following a 1.6% shortfall. [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 1.2% last week (+17.6% y/y), the same as during the prior week. Refinancing applications fell 2.7% (+22.7% y/y) following a 1.6% shortfall. Purchase applications increased 1.4% (10.5% y/y) after a 0.4% easing.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year mortgage was little changed at 3.12%, up from the July low of 2.97%. Rates remained down from the 3.50% highs of November and December. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose to 3.88%, up versus the 3.70% low early in July. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan was unchanged at 3.83%. For adjustable 5-year mortgages, the effective interest rate was stable at 3.10%, but was higher than 2.87% early in July.
The average mortgage loan size fell to $276,100, up 2.5% y/y. For purchases, it eased to $305,800 (+ 1.9% y/y); for refinancings, it declined to $258,100 (3.7% y/y).
Applications for fixed interest rate loans increased 20.3% y/y, while adjustable-rate loan applications declined 20.5% y/y.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 11/04/16 | 10/28/16 | 10/21/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | -1.2 | -1.2 | -4.1 | 17.6 | 17.9 | -41.4 | -24.2 |
| Purchase | 1.4 | -0.4 | -6.9 | 10.5 | 15.5 | -12.9 | 5.2 |
| Refinancing | -2.7 | -1.6 | -2.3 | 22.7 | 19.7 | -52.8 | -31.9 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.12 | 3.13 | 3.08 | 3.48 (Nov. '15) | 3.37 | 3.54 | 3.42 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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