Global| Apr 14 2008U.S. March Retail Sales Remained Weak
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. retail sales during March increased a modest 0.2% after a 0.4% decline during February. The February drop was a bit shallower than the -0.6% reported last month due to a lessening of that month's decline in sales of motor [...]
U.S. retail sales during March increased a modest 0.2% after a 0.4% decline during February. The February drop was a bit shallower than the -0.6% reported last month due to a lessening of that month's decline in sales of motor vehicles & parts. On a three month basis overall retail sales rose a negligible 0.7% through (AR) March. No change in March sales had been the consensus expectation.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts ticked up just 0.2% (-3.5% y/y) following February's revised 1.4% downdraft.
During March, retail sales excluding autos ticked up just 0.1% last month and reversed a little revised 0.1% February dip. So far this year the gain in nonauto retail sales amounted to 1.8% (AR) following a 4.5% rise last year.
A 0.1 % uptick in nonauto sales had been the consensus expectation.
Retail sales less gasoline & autos fell very slightly and were up 1.3% from a year earlier. On a three month basis these sales are roughly unchanged following the 4.4% rise last year. Sales at gasoline service stations rose 1.1% (18.9% y/y).
Sales of discretionary items remained quite weak. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance store sales fell 0.4% (-3.2% y/y). The level of these sales peaked last November and has fallen 4.0% since. Sales of electronics & appliances fell 0.4% (+1.2% y/y) after no change in February which initially was reported as a slight decline. Apparel store sales fell by 0.5% (-1.6% y/y) after a 0.9% (-1.6% y/y) February decline. These sales peaked last July and have since fallen 2.3%. Sales at general merchandise stores fell 0.6% (-0.0% y/y) and are 0.7% off last December's peak.
Building materials & garden equipment sales dropped another 1.6% (-6.9% y/y) and since their peak early in 2006 these sales are down 9.6%.
March sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) were one of the only areas of strength and they posted a firm 2.1% (8.7% y/y) increase after upwardly revised, slight increases in the prior two months.
Food & beverage store sales rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) last month.
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| March | February | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2% | -0.4% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% |
| Excluding Autos | 0.1% | -0.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% |
| Less Gasoline | -0.0% | -0.1% | 1.3% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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