Global| Mar 20 2014U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Jump
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of Leading Economic Indicators, published by the Conference Board, increased 0.5% (4.7% y/y) in February following a 0.1% January uptick, revised from 0.3%. A 0.2% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
The index of Leading Economic Indicators, published by the Conference Board, increased 0.5% (4.7% y/y) in February following a 0.1% January uptick, revised from 0.3%. A 0.2% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The breadth of component increase held steady m/m at a lessened 50%. A steeper interest rate yield curve, more building permits and the leading credit index worked to raise the overall index.
Countering this message of improvement was another slip in the ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators. It fell to nearly its lowest level of the economic recovery. It measures how the economy is performing versus its excesses.
The index of coincident indicators gained 0.2% (2.2% y/y) after an unrevised 0.1% January uptick. Last month, each of the component series - payroll employment, personal income less transfers, manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production - made positive contributions to the index.
The index of lagging economic indicators improved 0.3% last month (3.0% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.5% January increase. A surge in C&I loans outstanding, a higher consumer credit-to-income ratio and a stronger change in the services CPI had the largest positive impacts on the index.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 5.3 |
| Coincident | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
