Global| Jun 12 2008U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 25,000 last week to 384,000 from an upwardly revised level of 359,000 during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 365,000 claims. The four week moving [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 25,000 last week to 384,000 from an upwardly revised level of 359,000 during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser increase to 365,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose slightly week-to-week to 371,500 (19.4% y/y) and the recent average was up slightly from April when claims averaged 364,000. These numbers are down from March when initial claims averaged 375,000.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 58,000 and made up all of a revised 28,000 decline during the prior week. The latest level was the highest since February 2004. The four week average of continuing claims rose to 3,099, 250 and the number provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.4% after six weeks at 2.3%. The latest was the highest since mid-2004.
Lessons for Central Bankers from a Phillips Curve Framework is yesterday's speech by Fed Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn and it is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/07/08 | 05/31/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 384 | 359 | 22.3% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,139 | 25.6% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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