Global| Jun 09 2016U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell to 264,000 (-15.6% y/y) during the week ended June 4 versus 268,000 claims in the prior week, revised from 267,000. Despite the weekly decline, the average of claims in May were 6.7% above [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell to 264,000 (-15.6% y/y) during the week ended June 4 versus 268,000 claims in the prior week, revised from 267,000. Despite the weekly decline, the average of claims in May were 6.7% above April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 270,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 269,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
In the week ending May 28, continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2.095 million (-8.1% y/y) from 2.172 million. The four-week moving average eased to 2.145 million.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 1.5%, a record low.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continued to vary. Near the low end of the range were Nebraska (0.50%), Florida (0.60%), Tennessee (0.70%), South Carolina (0.76%), Georgia (0.80%) and Virginia (0.80%). At the high end of the scale were Rhode Island (1.80%), Massachusetts (1.90%), Illinois (1.90%), Pennsylvania (2.20%), New Jersey (2.30%) and Puerto Rico (2.40%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Is There Still Slack in the Labor Market? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/04/16 | 05/28/16 | 05/21/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 264 | 268 | 268 | -15.6% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,095 | 2,172 | -8.1 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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