Global| Aug 25 2016U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 261,000 (-4.0% y/y) during the week ended August 20 following an unrevised decline to 262,000 claims in the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims in five weeks, and near the [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 261,000 (-4.0% y/y) during the week ended August 20 following an unrevised decline to 262,000 claims in the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims in five weeks, and near the lowest level since 1973. The four-week moving average slipped to 264,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 265,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for jobless benefits declined to 2.145 million (-5.0% y/y) during the week ended August 13, from 2.175 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average was little changed at 2.155 million, also near a four-decade low.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, near the lowest level since 2000.
Insured rates of unemployment continued to vary across states. Near the low end of the range were North Carolina (0.66%), Florida (0.72%), Indiana (0.74%), Georgia (0.79%), Virginia (0.81%) and Maine (0.88%). At the high end of the scale were New York (1.78%), Nevada (1.80%), Massachusetts (2.01%), Pennsylvania (2.40%), Connecticut (2.68%) and New Jersey (2.72%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/20/16 | 08/13/16 | 08/06/16 | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 261 | 262 | 266 | -4.0% | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,145 | 2,175 | -5.0 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
