Global| Jan 28 2010U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Labor Department reported that initial claims for jobless insurance slipped 8,000 to 470,000 following strong increases during the prior two weeks. Despite the earlier increases, claims remained near the lowest level since late [...]
The Labor
Department reported that initial claims for jobless insurance slipped
8,000 to 470,000 following strong increases during the prior two weeks.
Despite the earlier increases, claims remained near the lowest level
since late August, 2008 and were down from the recession peak of
674,000 hit last March. Consensus expectations had been for 450,000
claims. The weekly gains raised the four-week moving average of initial
claims to 456,250 .which remained near the cycle low.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week fell sharply to a new cycle low. The 57,000 drop reversed all of the prior week's increase and claims were down by one-third since late-June. Continuing claims were at the lowest level since mid-January of last year. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of continuing claims fell to 4,669,250. This series dates back to 1966.
Extended benefits for unemployment insurance slipped to another cycle low of 261,962 during the second week of January and were down by more than one-half from a peak of 597,688 reached in November.
The
insured rate of unemployment also fell to a new low of 3.5%. The rate
reached a high of 5.2% during late-June. 
During the last ten years,
there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured
unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. · The highest insured unemployment
rates in the week ending January 2 were in Wisconsin (7.3 percent),
Alaska (7.1), Pennsylvania (6.9), Idaho (6.8), Michigan (6.2), North
Carolina (6.1), Montana (6.0), Washington (6.0) and Connecticut (5.8).
The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (2.5), Texas
(2.6), Florida (3.4), Wyoming (3.6), Maryland (3.8), Maine
(4.0), Ohio (4.1), New York (4.5) and Mississippi (4.4). These data are
not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
Labor Market Globalization in the Recession and Beyond from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 1/23/10 | 1/16/10 | 1/09/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 470 | 478 | 444 | -20.3% | 573 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,602 | 4,659 | -1.5% | 5,835 | 3,345 | 2,552 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 (1/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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