Global| Oct 04 2012U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose to 367,000 during the week ended September 29 versus a revised 363,000 during the prior week, initially reported as 359,000. Consensus expectations were for 370,000. The four-week moving [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose to 367,000 during the week ended September 29 versus a revised 363,000 during the prior week, initially reported as 359,000. Consensus expectations were for 370,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was unchanged at 375,000.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls. Consensus expectations are for a 120,000 rise in September payrolls to be reported tomorrow.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance were unchanged at 3.281M (-11.3% y/y) during the week of September 22. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.6% where it's been since March. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of September 15, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients again fell to a recovery low of 5.089M. The latest was down -25.8% y/y and was off by more than one-half since the peak in January 2010.
By state, the insured unemployment rate continued to vary greatly with Virginia (1.21%), Ohio (1.54), Texas (1.56%), Indiana (1.60%), Louisiana (1.81%), Georgia (1.89%), Florida (1.91%) and Michigan (1.94%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.45%), Illinois (2.56%), New York (2.63%), Nevada (2.77%), Connecticut (2.98%), New Jersey (3.19%, Pennsylvania (3.22%) and California (3.25%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus survey estimates are in AS1REPNA.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/29/12 | 09/22/12 | 09/15/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 367 | 363 | 385 | -8.7 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,281 | 3,281 | -11.3 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 (9/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 5.089M | -25.8 | 7.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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