Global| Aug 21 2014U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance during the week ended August 16 eased to 298,000 from 312,000 in the prior week, revised from 311,000. The latest figure compared to expectations for 300,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance during the week ended August 16 eased to 298,000 from 312,000 in the prior week, revised from 311,000. The latest figure compared to expectations for 300,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 300,750.
The latest claims figure covers the survey week for August nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 5,000 (-1.7%) from the July period. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended August 9 fell to 2.500 million (-16.1% y/y), a new low for the recovery, and the four-week moving average slipped to 2.528 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.9% for the sixth consecutive week.
By state in the week ended August 2, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Utah (0.88%), Wyoming (1.07%), Indiana (0.97%), Virginia (1.02%), Florida (1.33%) and Texas (1.42%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Illinois (2.20%), Massachusetts (2.52%), Rhode Island (2.62%), California (2.80%), Connecticut (3.06%) and New Jersey (3.35%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/16/14 | 08/09/14 | 08/02/14 | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 298 | 312 | 290 | -11.8 | 343 | 375 | 409 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,500 | 2,549 | -16.1 | 2,977 | 3,319 | 3,742 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | -- | 1.9 | 2.3 (8/13) |
2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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