Global| Feb 22 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 222,000 (-10.9% y/y) during the week ended February 17 from 229,000 in the prior week, revised from 230,000. Expectations had been for 230,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 222,000 (-10.9% y/y) during the week ended February 17 from 229,000 in the prior week, revised from 230,000. Expectations had been for 230,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average eased to 226,000, the lowest level since early-1973.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for February nonfarm payrolls. There was a 6,000 increase (2.8%) versus the January period. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended February 10, continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 1.875 million (-9.2% y/y) from 1.948 million. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.927 million.
The insured rate of unemployment slipped to 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended February 3, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.54%), North Carolina (0.58%), Georgia (0.73%), Virginia (0.75%), Tennessee (0.78%) and Indiana (0.81%). Near the high end were Connecticut (3.02%), New Jersey (3.00%), Montana (2.82%), Rhode Island (2.72%), Pennsylvania (2.73%) and California (2.44%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 02/17/18 | 02/10/18 | 02/03/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 222 | 229 | 223 | -10.9 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,875 | 1,948 | -9.2 | 1,962 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.3 | 1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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