Global| Mar 30 2017U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial jobless insurance applications fell to 258,000 (-3.1% y/y) during the week ended March 25 from 261,000 during the prior week, revised from 258,000. Expectations had been for 247,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial jobless insurance applications fell to 258,000 (-3.1% y/y) during the week ended March 25 from 261,000 during the prior week, revised from 258,000. Expectations had been for 247,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the weekly decline, the four-week moving average of 254,000 was the highest in three months. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended March 18 increased to 2.052 million (-5.1% y/y) from 1.987 million. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 2.031 million, the lowest level since June 2000.
The insured unemployment rate ticked higher to 1.5% from 1.4%, but remained near the record low.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary widely. For the week ended March 11, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.51%), North Carolina (0.58%), Tennessee (0.70%), Georgia (0.72%), South Carolina (0.73%) and Virginia (0.80%). The highest rates were found in California (2.46%), Rhode Island (2.70%), Montana (2.71%), Connecticut (2.80%), New Jersey (2.93%) and Alaska (3.98s%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 03/25/17 | 03/18/17 | 03/11/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 258 | 261 | 246 | -3.1 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,052 | 1,987 | -5.1 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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