Global| Feb 06 2020U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 15,000 to 202,000 (-11.8% y/y) during the week ended February 1 from 217,000 in the prior week, revised from 216,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 initial claims. [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 15,000 to 202,000 (-11.8% y/y) during the week ended February 1 from 217,000 in the prior week, revised from 216,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 211,750, the lowest level since mid-April 2019.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended January 25 increased to 1.751 million (2.1% y/y) from an unrevised 1.703 million. The four-week moving average of claimants fell to 1.742 million, its lowest level in four weeks.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.2%, where it has been since mid-November.
Insured unemployment rates vary widely by state. During the week ending January 18, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.39%), North Carolina (0.51%), Nebraska (0.53%), Virginia (0.58%) and Tennessee (0.64%). The highest rates were in West Virginia (2.50%), Connecticut (2.52%), Montana (2.60%), New Jersey (2.67%) and Alaska (3.09%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 1.08% in Texas, 1.75% in New York and 1.95% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims dating back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 02/01/20 | 01/25/20 | 01/18/20 | Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 202 | 217 | 223 | -11.8 | 218 | 220 | 244 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,751 | 1,703 | 2.1 | 1,700 | 1,756 | 1,961 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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