Global| Oct 16 2014U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Unexpectedly Reach New Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims during the week ended October 11 fell to 264,000 (-25.6% y/y) from an unrevised 287,000 during the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims since April 2000. The Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims during the week ended October 11 fell to 264,000 (-25.6% y/y) from an unrevised 287,000 during the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims since April 2000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected near-stability at 290,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 284,000. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended October 4 ticked up to 2.389 million (-17.3% y/y), the lowest level since May 2006. The four-week moving average fell to 2.404 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the fifth straight week, the lowest level since May 2007.
By state, in the week ended September 27, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with North Dakota (0.26%), Nebraska (0.64%), Indiana (0.84%), Virginia (0.89%), Ohio (1.03%) and Texas (1.21%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.06%), Nevada (2.09%), Pennsylvania (2.13%), California (2.32%), Connecticut (2.36%) and New Jersey (2.77%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/11/14 | 10/04/14 | 09/27/14 | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 264 | 287 | 288 | -25.6 | 343 | 375 | 409 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,389 | 2,382 | -17.3 | 2,977 | 3,319 | 3,742 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (10/13) |
2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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