Global| Sep 01 2011U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Retreat
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 409,000 in the week ended August 27, down from 421,000 during the prior week (revised from 417,000). The latest figure roughly matched an expected 407,000 according to the Action [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 409,000 in the week ended August 27, down from 421,000 during the prior week (revised from 417,000). The latest figure roughly matched an expected 407,000 according to the Action Economics survey. The 4-week moving average of 410,250 claims was the highest in one month. Nevertheless, claims have been moving sideways for most of this year.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance slipped to 3.735M in the August 20 week. It also has been trending sideways since early this year. The insured unemployment rate held at 3.0%.
The grand total of those receiving unemployment insurance, including extended programs run by the States and the federal government, was 7.336M as of August 13, down by one-quarter y/y. Regular extended benefits, with eligibility dependent on conditions in individual states, rose slightly to 557,923 (-38.1% y/y) and those on the special 2008 "EUC 2008" programs increased to 3.118M (-31.6% y/y).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics estimates are in AS1REPNA.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 8/27/11 | 8/20/11 | 8/13/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 409 | 421 | 412 | -12.6 | 459 | 574 | 418 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,735 | 3,753 | -16.2 | 4,544 | 5,807 | 3,338 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate(%) | -- | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 (8/14) |
3.6 | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 7.336M | -25.1 | 9.850M | 9.163M | 3.903M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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