Global| Aug 18 2011U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Are Range-bound Near 400,000
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims have been waffling between 375,000 and 432,000 since February. Last week, they ticked up w/w to 408,000 from an upwardly revised 399,000 during the prior period. The figure surpassed expectations [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims have been waffling between 375,000 and 432,000 since February. Last week, they ticked up w/w to 408,000 from an upwardly revised 399,000 during the prior period. The figure surpassed expectations for 400,000. The four-week moving average of claims slipped to 402,500, its lowest level since mid-April.
The latest claims figure covers the survey week for August nonfarm payrolls and claims fell 14,000 (-3.3%) from the July period. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance ticked up to 3.702M in the August 6th week, still the lowest since mid-April. The insured unemployment rate was stable at 2.9%. These claimants, however, were only about half of the total number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance. Regular extended benefits, with eligibility dependent on conditions in individual states, fell to 527,490 (-36.1% y/y) during the week ending July 30th (the latest figure available). According to the Labor Department, the extended benefits were available in 32 states and the District of Columbia. A companion program, Emergency Unemployment Compensation, referred to as EUC 2008, saw 3.131M beneficiaries that week, also down by one-third y/y.
A grand total of all claimants for unemployment insurance includes the extended and emergency programs and specialized programs covering recently discharged veterans, federal employees and those in state-run "work share" programs. All together, during the July 30th week, these recipients totaled 7.336M, which is down 26.4% y/y.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics estimates are in AS1REPNA.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 8/13/11 | 8/06/11 | 7/30/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 408 | 399 | 402 | -16.4 | 459 | 574 | 418 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,702 | 3,695 | -17.5 | 4,544 | 5,807 | 3,338 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate(%) | -- | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.5 (8/7) |
3.6 | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 7.336M | -26.4 | 9.850M | 9.163M | 3.903M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
