Global| Dec 15 2020U.S. Industrial Production Increases Again in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Production gain moderates m/m but surges since April. • Durable goods strength is pronounced, notably for motor vehicles. • Capacity utilization continues to rise. Industrial production increased 0.4% (-5.5% y/y) during November [...]
• Production gain moderates m/m but surges since April.
• Durable goods strength is pronounced, notably for motor vehicles.
• Capacity utilization continues to rise.
Industrial production increased 0.4% (-5.5% y/y) during November following a 0.9% October rise, revised from 1.1%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Survey Forecast Survey. Since April, production has risen 13.9% but remains 5.5% below the November 2019 peak.
Manufacturing production increased 0.8% last month following a 1.1% October gain. Despite the rise, factory output is 3.8% below its December 2019 peak. Utilities output declined 4.3% (-8.9% y/y) and mining output rose 2.2% (-12.5% y/y) in November.
Durable goods production increased 1.5% (-4.3% y/y). Motor vehicle production rose 5.3% but was unchanged y/y. Machinery production fell 0.6% (-4.9% y/y) while output of electrical equipment fell 0.8% (-5.0% y/y). Furniture production improved 0.3% (-10.7% y/y). Business equipment production gained 2.0% (-8.6% y/y). Nondurable goods production edged 0.1% higher (-2.5% y/y) led by a 2.1% rise (1.2% y/y) in paper production. Foods, beverage & tobacco output gained 1.0% (1.5% y/y). To the downside, petroleum production fell 0.7% (-14.0% y/y) while chemical output eased 0.5% (-3.0% y/y).
Output of selected high technology equipment rose 0.6% (4.9% y/y) after a 1.7% rise. Excluding these products, production improved 0.8% (-3.3% y/y). Excluding both high tech products & motor vehicles, factory production rose 0.4% (-4.1% y/y).
Capacity utilization improved to 73.3%, its highest point since March. Factory sector utilization rose to 72.6%, also its highest point since March and up from the April low of 60.1%.
Industrial production and capacity and oil prices are located in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.4 | 0.9 | -0.1 | -5.5 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Manufacturing | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | -3.7 | -0.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Durable Goods | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | -4.3 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| Motor Vehicles | 5.3 | -1.1 | -3.2 | 0.0 | -2.3 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
| Selected High Tech | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 2.6 |
| Nondurable Goods | 0.1 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -2.5 | -0.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Utilities | -4.3 | 1.8 | -2.2 | -8.9 | -0.8 | 4.4 | -0.8 |
| Mining | 2.2 | -0.7 | 1.0 | -12.5 | 7.1 | 12.4 | 7.4 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 73.3 | 73.0 | 72.3 | 77.6 | 77.8 | 78.7 | 76.5 |
| Manufacturing | 72.6 | 72.0 | 71.2 | 75.2 | 75.6 | 76.6 | 75.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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