Global| Apr 12 2011U.S. Import Prices Surge With Oil & Food Costs
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Surging oil prices lifted overall U.S. import prices last month. Prices jumped 2.7% after an unrevised 1.4% February increase. The gain was stronger than Consensus expectations for a 2.1% rise. It was paced by a 10.5% surge in [...]
Surging oil prices lifted overall U.S. import prices last month. Prices jumped 2.7% after an unrevised 1.4% February increase. The gain was stronger than Consensus expectations for a 2.1% rise. It was paced by a 10.5% surge in petroleum costs while nonpetroleum prices rose by a diminished 0.3%.
Indeed, earlier strength in petroleum prices continued last month. Brent crude oil prices rose to an average $112.77 per barrel compared to $101.46 in February. During March, non-oil import prices rose a revised 0.7% and 4.1% y/y. (The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has had an 81% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.)
Earlier strength in imported food & beverage prices intensified with a 4.2% March increase, up 18.9% y/y. Prices for nonoil industrial supplies rose a diminished 0.5% (12.3% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods fell 0.2% (+0.3% y/y). Home entertainment equipment prices declined 10.0% y/y but furniture prices rose 2.9%. Apparel prices rose 5.2% y/y. Imported auto prices rose 1.6% during the last twelve months while imported capital goods prices moved 0.9% higher. Computer & peripherals prices fell 3.9% y/y but excluding computers, capital goods prices rose 2.7%.
Total export prices jumped another 1.5% last month and rose a strong 9.5% y/y. The strength reflected a more than one-third y/y increase in agricultural prices. Non-agricultural goods prices also were strong with a 1.3% gain last month and 7.0% y/y. Strength has been notable for industrial supplies, up 21.4% y/y, and non-auto consumer goods, up 3.4% y/y.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database
Commodity Prices, the Economic Outlook, and Monetary Policy is the title of yesterday's speech by Fed Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen and it can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 9.7 | 6.9 | -11.5 | 11.5 |
| Petroleum | 10.5 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 31.3 | 28.4 | -35.9 | 37.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | -4.1 | 5.3 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | -4.6 | 6.0 |
| Agricultural | 2.3 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 7.9 | -12.8 | 21.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 4.6 | -3.7 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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