Global| Dec 14 2011U.S. Import Prices Rise As Oil Rebounds
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. import prices rose 0.7% last month and made up a revised 0.5% October decline, initially reported as -0.6%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.8% rise last month. Year-to-year, higher oil prices and the lower value of the [...]
U.S. import prices rose 0.7% last month and made up a revised 0.5% October decline, initially reported as -0.6%. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.8% rise last month. Year-to-year, higher oil prices and the lower value of the dollar raised prices for imported products by 9.9% y/y. Petroleum prices recovered 3.6% last month and rose one-third versus last year as Brent crude oil sold for an average $111.55 per barrel. Prices are near that level so far this month but remain down from April high of $112.68. Non-oil import prices fell 0.2% (+3.7% y/y) during November, down for the second consecutive month. The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has an 81% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.
Imported food & beverage prices slipped 0.1% last month (+8.0% y/y) while prices for non-oil industrial supplies fell 1.2% (+7.6% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods ticked up 0.1% (3.3% y/y) reflecting a 4.4% gain (3.6% y/y) in household goods. Furniture prices rose 0.2% (6.9% y/y), but home entertainment equipment prices again fell (-8.6% y/y). Imported auto prices inched up 0.2% (3.5% y/y) and imported capital goods prices ticked up 0.1% (+0.9% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices were unchanged (-5.4% y/y) while excluding computers, capital goods prices gained 0.1% (3.5% y/y).
U.S. export prices notched up 0.1% as agricultural prices jumped 1.5%. The gain was accompanied by a 0.1% dip in non-agricultural goods (+4.8% y/y). Prices of industrial supplies slipped 0.2% but were up 9.6% y/y. Capital goods prices were unchanged (0.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month and nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.2% (+3.3% y/y). That compared to a 2.1% rise last year and a 0.3% increase during all of 2009. Prices for exported autos & parts were unchanged (2.3% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.7 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | -11.5 | 11.5 |
| Petroleum | 3.6 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 33.4 | 28.4 | -35.9 | 37.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 2.8 | -4.1 | 5.3 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.1 | -2.1 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 4.9 | -4.6 | 6.0 |
| Agricultural | 1.5 | -6.5 | 1.9 | 5.3 | 7.9 | -12.8 | 21.6 |
| Nonagricultural | -0.1 | -1.5 | 0.3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | -3.7 | 4.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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